Trends in world energy prices

Trends, Persistence, and Volatility in Energy Markets

“…A second significant trend break is observed in November 1999, possibly due to linkages with the oil markets. Table 3 presents the estimation results of the prevalence of trends following the study on commodity prices by Kellard and Wohar (2006) and adopted for further analysis on energy prices by Ghoshray and Johnson (2010). The coefficient on each slope dummy gives an idea of the underlying trend in each regime that is identified.…”

“…Following Kellard and Wohar (2006) and Ghoshray and Johnson (2010), the trend function for price is reparameterized to facilitate the estimation of the trend coefficient for up to three different regimes. For the three-regime model, P t * is defined as:…”

OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Production and the Global Economy

“…Pindyck (1999) and Ferreira et al (2005) do not allow for structural breaks and conclude that oil prices are non-stationary. Maslyuk and Smyth (2008) with weekly data and Ghoshray and Johnson (2010) with monthly data permit up to two structural breaks and are unable to reject the null of unit root. Mishra and Smyth (2014) report that recognizing heteroskedasticity in 6 Cairns and Calfucura (2012) argue that Saudi Arabia's objective is to set oil production to moderate oil prices so as to preserve a market for oil in the long run.…”

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

“…Despite a large body of empirical work, there is no consensus as to the best way to capture the true dynamics of energy price changes (Ghoshray and Johnson, 2010). In this study, we assume future prices of the energy sources using EIA forecast, coupled with additional forecast method to extend the forecasted time horizon to 2050.…”