Trends in Winter Warm Spells in the Central England Temperature Record

Abstract

An important impact of climate change on agriculture and the sustainability of ecosystems is the increase of extended warm spells during winter. We apply crossing theory to the central England temperature time series of winter daily maximum temperatures to quantify how increased occurrence of higher temperatures translates into more frequent, longer-lasting, and more intense winter warm spells. We find since the late 1800s an overall two- to threefold increase in the frequency and duration of winter warm spells. A winter warm spell of 5 days in duration with daytime maxima above 13°C has a return period that was often over 5 years but now is consistently below 4 years. Weeklong warm intervals that return on average every 5 years now consistently exceed ~13°C. The observed changes in the temporal pattern of environmental variability will affect the phenology of ecological processes and the structure and functioning of ecosystems.

Seasonal Variability of Trends in Regional Hot and Warm Temperature Extremes in Europe

“…The one exception to this rule is the largest among all seasons and domains rise in the intensity of summer ETEs and TXx in the "British" domain. Existing studies in this area show an increase in summer heatwaves and winter warm spells in the United Kingdom [58,59,65]. In contrast to the regions described earlier, the acceleration of trends in autumn across the two aforesaid domains over the last 40 years has not been that strong.…”

“…Kivinen et al [63] obtained similar results for the Northern Fennoscandia for the period 1914-2013, and determined the occurrence of a much higher number of extremely warm days in April and October over the last 20 years of the study period. Chapman et al [65] examined the Central England Temperature Record and found a two-to threefold increase in the frequency and duration of winter warm spells since the late 1800 s. Significant increasing trends in the number of warm winter days were also noted for Central Europe [66] as well as for high mountain sites in the Swiss Alps [67]. Research results for Southeastern Europe vary.…”

The rise of Vulpia myuros (Poaceae) and the impact of cultivation-timing on plant community structure.

“…The timing of cultivation was crucial: V. myuros increased on plots cultivated in October, but not on those cultivated in March or April. It may well be that the increase documented from arable agriculture is driven by a more widespread cause such as increasing winter temperatures (Chapman et al, 2020) interacting with autumn cultivation.…”

Wintertime cold and warm spells in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea region

“…This can play a considerable role in biochemistry, changes in ecosystems, primary production, and dynamics of an agricultural pest species (Ma et al 2018;Chapman et al 2020). Extended warm and cold periods, as well as changes in the freeze-thaw cycle, have a negative impact on structure and functioning of ecosystems, seasonal cycles development, and survival rates of different organisms (Jiguet et al 2011;Ma et al 2015).…”

“…Extended warm and cold periods, as well as changes in the freeze-thaw cycle, have a negative impact on structure and functioning of ecosystems, seasonal cycles development, and survival rates of different organisms (Jiguet et al 2011;Ma et al 2015). In addition, a return of cold winter conditions can lead to plants tissue damage and its further development during spring (Chapman et al 2020). Thus, detailed studies of WSs are necessary to understand the mechanism of their formation and the further procedures of improving their predictions.…”