Trends in Views of Democracy and Society and Support for Political Violence in the United States: Findings from a 2023 Nationally Representative Survey

Abstract

Background: A 2022 survey in the USA found concerningly high prevalences of support for and personal willingness to engage in political violence, of beliefs associated with such violence, and of belief that civil war was likely in the near future. It is important to determine the durability of those findings. Methods: Wave 2 of a nationally representative cohort survey was conducted May 18-June 8, 2023; the sample comprised all respondents to 2022’s Wave 1. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions; changes from 2022 to 2023 are for respondents who participated in both surveys, based on aggregated individual change scores. Results: The completion rate was 84.2%; there were 9385 respondents. After weighting, 50.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.4%, 52.1%) were female; weighted mean (± standard deviation) age was 48.5 (±25.9) years. One in 6 (16.1%, 95% CI 15.0%, 17.1%) agreed strongly/very strongly in 2023 that “having a strong leader for America is more important than having a democracy,” a 2.3% decrease from 2022. About 1 in 20 (5.7%, 95% CI 5.1%, 6.4%) agreed strongly/very strongly that “in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States,” a 7.7% decrease. Of these respondents, 38.4% (95% CI 32.3%, 44.5%) strongly/very strongly agreed that “the United States needs a civil war to set things right.”In 2023, fewer respondents considered violence to be usually/always justified to advance at least 1 of 17 specific political objectives [25.3% (95% CI 24.7%, 26.5%), a 6.8% decrease]. However, more respondents thought it very/extremely likely that within the next few years, in a situation where they consider political violence justified, “I will be armed with a gun” [9.0% (95% CI 8.3%, 9.8%), a 2.2% increase] and “I will shoot someone with a gun” [1.8% (95% CI 1.4%, 2.2%), a 0.6% increase]. Among respondents who considered violence usually/always justified to advance at least 1 political objective, about 1 in 20 also thought it very/extremely likely that they would threaten someone with a gun (5.4%, 95% CI 4.0%, 7.0%) or shoot someone (5.7%, 95% CI 4.3%, 7.1%) to advance such an objective.Conclusions: In this cohort, support for political violence declined from 2022 to 2023, but predictions of firearm use in political violence increased. These findings can help guide prevention efforts, which are urgently needed.

Fear, Loathing, and Political Violence in the United States: Findings from a Nationally Representative Survey

“…In 2022, we initiated a nationally representative annual longitudinal survey to examine support for and willingness to engage in political violence and identify characteristics associated with variation in those measures. [10][11][12][13][14][15] Endorsement of racist beliefs was strongly associated with support for political violence 14 ; 51.1% of respondents who strongly agreed with statements of such beliefs, but only 21.6% of those who did not agree, considered physical violence to be usually or always justified to advance at least 1 of 17 specified political objectives. Those who strongly agreed also more frequently predicted that they would be armed with a firearm in a future situation where they considered political violence to be justified (strong agreement, 11.1%; non-agreement, 3.9%).…”

“…Those who strongly agreed also more frequently predicted that they would be armed with a firearm in a future situation where they considered political violence to be justified (strong agreement, 11.1%; non-agreement, 3.9%). 14 In 2023's Wave 2 of the survey 15 we expanded this line of inquiry, collecting data for each of the phobias listed above using abbreviated versions of previously validated scales. [16][17][18][19][20][21] We report prevalences for those phobias here along with cross-sectional estimates of their associations, individually and in combination, with support for and willingness to engage in political violence.…”