2012
DOI: 10.3368/jhr.47.1.204
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Trends in the Transitory Variance of Male Earnings

Abstract: We estimate the trend in the transitory variance of male earnings in the U.S. using the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1970 to 2004. Using an error components model and simpler but only approximate methods, we find that the transitory variance started to increase in the early 1970s, continued to increase through the mid-1980s, and then remained at this new higher level through the 1990s and beyond. Thus the increase mostly occurred about thirty years ago. Its increase accounts for between 31 and … Show more

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Cited by 57 publications
(73 citation statements)
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References 54 publications
(77 reference statements)
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“…We observe that the transitory component increased during the period, although it tended to flatten out in the late 1980s. This is in line with the findings of the more parametrized models of Moffitt and Gottschalk (2012). We also find that the permanent component has been decreasing steadily throughout the sampling period.…”
Section: Empirical Applicationsupporting
confidence: 81%
See 2 more Smart Citations
“…We observe that the transitory component increased during the period, although it tended to flatten out in the late 1980s. This is in line with the findings of the more parametrized models of Moffitt and Gottschalk (2012). We also find that the permanent component has been decreasing steadily throughout the sampling period.…”
Section: Empirical Applicationsupporting
confidence: 81%
“…In a recent paper, Moffitt and Gottschalk (2012) re-estimate the trend in the transitory variance of male earnings in the United States using the PSID from 1970 to 2004. They estimated both a simple one-factor model and more sophisticated error-component models, and found that the transitory variance started to increase in the early 1970s, continued to increase through the mid-1980s, and then remained at this new higher level through the 1990s and beyond.…”
Section: Empirical Applicationmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…We estimate the model using an equally-weighted minimum distance estimator, a standard approach in the literature since Moffitt and Gottschalk (1995). The model is just identified.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In the literature it is sometimes modeled with a longer ARMA structure. Hence, for example MACURDY [1982] and MOFFITT and GOTTSCHALK [2008] used an ARMA(1,2). More recently, MEGHIR and PISTAFERRI [2004] used ARCH processes.…”
Section: Iii1 Measuring Income Riskmentioning
confidence: 99%