Trends in the Timing and Magnitude of Ice-Jam Floods in Canada

Rokaya, Prabin; Budhathoki, Sujata; Lindenschmidt, Karl–Erich

doi:10.1038/s41598-018-24057-z

Cited by 69 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 60 publications

(72 reference statements)

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“…An earlier onset of snowmelt driven floods in the future was also evident from Figure 9, where grids that are projected with up to two months of early spring melt are shown. These results are in line with the findings from observational studies performed in different locations across Canada, where an earlier onset of snowmelt driven floods has been documented [59][60][61][62], as well as projected under the influences of climate change [34,[63][64][65]. This observation is obtained consistently across all four emission scenarios considered for assessment, although it is noted that the GCMs were more uncertain on the prediction of the peak flow month in the cases of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.…”

Section: Projected Changes In Flood Occurrence Timingsupporting

confidence: 89%

Future Changes in Flood Hazards across Canada under a Changing Climate

Gaur

Simonović́

2018

Water

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Climate change has induced considerable changes in the dynamics of key hydro-climatic variables across Canada, including floods. In this study, runoff projections made by 21 General Climate Models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used to generate 25 km resolution streamflow estimates across Canada for historical and future (2061-2100) time-periods. These estimates are used to calculate future projected changes in flood magnitudes and timings across Canada. Results obtained indicate that flood frequencies in the northernmost regions of Canada, and south-western Ontario can be expected to increase in the future. As an example, the historical 100-year return period events in these regions are expected to become 10-60 year return period events. On the other hand, northern prairies and north-central Ontario can be expected to experience decreases in flooding frequencies in future. The historical 100-year return period flood events in these regions are expected to become 160-200 year return period events in future. Furthermore, prairies, parts of Quebec, Ontario, Nunavut, and Yukon territories can be expected to experience earlier snowmelt-driven floods in the future. The results from this study will help decision-makers to effectively manage and design municipal and civil infrastructure in Canada under a changing climate.Basin Network (RHBN) catchments in Canada were examined by [28]. A decreasing trend in annual maximum flows for catchments located in southern Canada, and an increasing trend in catchments located in northern Canada was obtained. In addition, a robust signal of increases in spring snowmelt driven peak flow was obtained in the months of March and April, whereas a decrease in June month peak flow was obtained. These findings highlight that the behavior of extreme floods has changed across Canada as a consequence of climate change. Therefore, as advocated in previous research [29,30], it is important to obtain reliable flood frequency estimates under a non-stationary climate, such that they can be used to design climate resilient civil and municipal infrastructure across Canada.General Climate Models (GCMs) simulate complex bio-geophysical and chemical processes occurring within the earth system and their interactions [20]. Land surface schemes are the interface within the GCMs that host important energy budget and water balance calculations occurring within a GCM grid-cell. GCM simulations are performed at a coarse spatial resolution of~110-550 km, which hinders the accurate representation of some of the important physical processes, such as convection that shapes the earth's climate [22]. As a result, large uncertainties have been obtained in GCM projections, especially for variables linked to precipitation [22]. For making future flows and flooding projections at catchment(s) scales, typically, coarse resolution climate projections from GCMs are downscaled, and they are used to generate streamflow responses using a hydrologic model. This approach has been adopted in ...

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Section: Projected Changes In Flood Occurrence Timingsupporting

confidence: 89%

Future Changes in Flood Hazards across Canada under a Changing Climate

Gaur

Simonović́

2018

Water

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“…Natural system impacts ( h ) may include events such as branch breakage and tree mortality, crop stress and mortality, flooding, disruption of wildlife behaviors, frost heaving, and changes to carbon and nutrient cycling processes (Contosta et al, , ; Enanga et al, ; Penczykowski et al, ; Rokaya et al, ; Rustad & Campbell, ). Human system impacts ( i ) may include occurrences such as disruption of work/school activities, damage to property, increased municipal expenditures, disruption of basic essential services such as transportation and emergency services, loss of communication, and acute and/or long‐term psychological and emotional stress (Bloesch & Gourio, ; Doherty & Clayton, ; Kloster et al, ; Martner et al, ).…”

Section: Developing a Winter Weather Whiplash Conceptual Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this case, substantial snowmelt and rain water influx to ice‐covered rivers resulted in a larger flood response. Flooding of this type can be extremely costly, with damages reaching tens or hundreds of millions of dollars depending on the location and severity of the flood (Rokaya et al, ).…”

Section: Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Winter Weather Whiplash: Impacts of Meteorological Events Misaligned With Natural and Human Systems in Seasonally Snow‐Covered Regions

et al. 2019

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Weather whiplash" is a colloquial phrase for describing an extreme event that includes shifts between two opposing weather conditions. Prior media coverage and research on these types of extremes have largely ignored winter weather events. However, rapid swings in winter weather can result in crossing from frozen to unfrozen conditions, or vice versa; thus, the potential impact of these types of events on coupled human and natural systems may be large. Given rapidly changing winter conditions in seasonally snow-covered regions, there is a pressing need for a deeper understanding of such events and the extent of their impacts to minimize their risks. Here we introduce the concept of winter weather whiplash, defined as a class of extreme event in which a collision of unexpected conditions produces a forceful, rapid, back-and-forth change in winter weather that induces an outsized impact on coupled human and natural systems. Using a series of case studies, we demonstrate that the effects of winter weather whiplash events depend on the natural and human context in which they occur, and discuss how these events may result in the restructuring of social and ecological systems. We use the long-term hydrometeorological record at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA to demonstrate quantitative methods for delineating winter weather whiplash events and their biophysical impacts. Ultimately, we argue that robust conceptual and quantitative frameworks for understanding winter weather whiplash events will contribute to the ways in which we mitigate and adapt to winter climate change in vulnerable regions. Plain Language SummaryWeather whiplash is a term used by researchers and the media to describe wild and rapid shifts in weather conditions. Here we investigate "winter weather whiplash" events, which are characterized by weather conditions swinging from frozen to unfrozen (or vice versa). These events have important consequences for ecosystems and communities, especially when they occur at unusual times of the year. Impacts of these events include tree damage, flooding, electrical outages, and crop damage. We use a series of case studies to explore the impacts of these events and analyze a long-term data set to demonstrate how they might be detected from weather data. Understanding winter weather whiplash events will help decision makers and planners adapt and mitigate these events in the future.

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“…1) and associated dramatic consequences for river ecology and infrastructure (e.g. Prowse et al, 2007;Kääb and Prowse, 2011;Rokaya et al, 2018a). River discharge measurements are complicated during freeze-up and break-up due to the physical impact of ice on instrumentation, and the determination of water surface speeds from tracking river ice floes can aid with estimating discharge (Beltaos and Kääb, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

River-ice and water velocities using the Planet optical cubesat constellation

Kääb

Altena

Mascaro

2019

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The PlanetScope constellation consists of ∼150 optical cubesats that are evenly distributed like strings of pearls on two orbital planes, scanning the Earth's land surface once per day with an approximate spatial image resolution of 3 m. Subsequent cubesats on each of the orbital planes image the Earth surface with a nominal time lag of approximately 90 s between them, which produces near-simultaneous image pairs over the across-track overlaps of the cubesat swaths. We exploit this short time lag between subsequent Planet cubesat images to track river ice floes on northern rivers as indicators of water surface velocities. The method is demonstrated for a 60 km long reach of the Amur River in Siberia, and a 200 km long reach of the Yukon River in Alaska. The accuracy of the estimated horizontal surface velocities is of the order of ±0.01 m s−1. The application of our approach is complicated by cloud cover and low sun angles at high latitudes during the periods where rivers typically carry ice floes, and by the fact that the near-simultaneous swath overlaps, by design, do not cover the complete Earth surface. Still, the approach enables direct remote sensing of river surface velocities for numerous cold-region rivers at a number of locations and occasionally several times per year – which is much more frequent and over much larger areas than currently feasible. We find that freeze-up conditions seem to offer ice floes that are generally more suitable for tracking, and over longer time periods, compared with typical ice break-up conditions. The coverage of river velocities obtained could be particularly useful in combination with satellite measurements of river area, and river surface height and slope.

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Trends in the Timing and Magnitude of Ice-Jam Floods in Canada

Cited by 69 publications

References 60 publications

Future Changes in Flood Hazards across Canada under a Changing Climate

Future Changes in Flood Hazards across Canada under a Changing Climate

Winter Weather Whiplash: Impacts of Meteorological Events Misaligned With Natural and Human Systems in Seasonally Snow‐Covered Regions

River-ice and water velocities using the Planet optical cubesat constellation

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