Trends in the rainfall pattern over India

Guhathakurta, Pulak; Rajeevan, M.

doi:10.1002/joc.1640

Cited by 590 publications

(290 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…3c). The rainfall region under consideration is chosen because the decreasing trend in rainfall is significant over this region, and also consistent with other studies utilizing station-wise analysis of rain gauge data 6 . Indeed, the SST and precipitation time series in Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 66%

“…The data density varies from year to year from about 1,500 in the first couple of years to about 4,000 by the end of the century. The trend in precipitation over the central Indian region under consideration is compared with studies utilizing station wise analysis of rain gauge data 6 . SST data for the same period are obtained from the HadISST1 dataset provided by the Met Office Hadley Centre, and also the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) provided by NOAA.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A few recent studies have also pointed out the increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events over the South Asian monsoon domain, due to a warming climate 3 . However, quite a few other studies indicate that the monsoon rainfall [4][5][6] and the Hadley and Walker circulations [7][8][9] are weakening over the South Asian domain during the past half century (since 1950s). Some of these studies suggest that, though the extreme rainfall events have increased over some regions 3 , the frequency of moderate-to-heavy rainfall events has decreased over the subcontinent 8 .…”

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confidence: 99%

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Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient

et al. 2015

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There are large uncertainties looming over the status and fate of the South Asian summer monsoon, with several studies debating whether the monsoon is weakening or strengthening in a changing climate. Our analysis using multiple observed datasets demonstrates a significant weakening trend in summer rainfall during 1901-2012 over the central-east and northern regions of India, along the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins and the Himalayan foothills, where agriculture is still largely rain-fed. Earlier studies have suggested an increase in moisture availability and land-sea thermal gradient in the tropics due to anthropogenic warming, favouring an increase in tropical rainfall. Here we show that the land-sea thermal gradient over South Asia has been decreasing, due to rapid warming in the Indian Ocean and a relatively subdued warming over the subcontinent. Using long-term observations and coupled model experiments, we provide compelling evidence that the enhanced Indian Ocean warming potentially weakens the land-sea thermal contrast, dampens the summer monsoon Hadley circulation, and thereby reduces the rainfall over parts of South Asia.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 66%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient

et al. 2015

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“…Some stations in the peninsular India and along east coast show increasing trends (significant at 10% level), while significant decrease (at 5% level) in the number of rain hours is observed at some stations in the central parts of India. This may be due to decreasing trends in the July rainfall over this region (Guhathakurta and Rajeevan, 2006).…”

Section: Trends In Number Of Rain Hoursmentioning

confidence: 91%

Characteristic features of hourly rainfall in India

Deshpande

Kulkarni

Kumar

2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Hourly rainfall data recorded at 72 Self Recording Raingauge Stations (SRRG) for the period 1969-2006 are utilized to study the characteristic features of hourly rainfall and diurnal variations of rainfall in India. Temporal changes in the short duration (less than 12 h) rainfall extremes are examined. Time distribution of a heavy rain spell of 24 h duration, which is an important component in water resources management and flood control studies, is analysed. Different aspects of hourly rainfall such as, average number of rain hours in a year, empirical probability distribution functions have also been examined. Analysis indicates, many stations in India have recorded more than 10 cm of rainfall in an hour's duration. Such stations are located along the west coast, foothills of Himalayas and along the tracks of monsoon disturbances. Extreme rainfall events of various duration (3-12 h) show increasing trends, significant at 5% level, at many stations located in central India and peninsular India except for southern part of west coast. Time distribution of hourly rainfall shows that, on average, 25% of the daily rainfall can be received in just 3 h, while 80% can occur in 12 h during the heavy rain spells of 24-h duration.

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“…Northeast India, where the Meghalaya Hills are located, can be treated as a relatively separate region, with summer monsoon rainfall weakly correlated or out of phase with that of peninsular India (Mooley and Shukla 1987;Parthasarathy et al 1987;Sontakee and Singh 1996;Guhathakurta and Rajeevan 2008;Guhathakurta et al 2011). The area receives high rainfall (the annual mean approximately 2,066 mm with a coefficient of variation of 8.6 %), but its large spatiotemporal variation, related to multiscale interaction with topography, results in difficulties in the detection of trends in extreme rain events (Parthasarathy et al 1995;Goswami et al 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variation in the orographic extreme rain events over the Meghalaya Hills in northeast India in the two halves of the twentieth century

Prokop

Walanus

2014

Theor Appl Climatol

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The daily rainfall data for the twentieth century, from three stations across the region, constitute the basis for statistical analysis. However, the low signal-to-noise ratio makes it difficult to find any significant departure from the simplest null hypothesis of the stability of the rain record at individual stations in northeast India. Only the coarsest possible view, i.e. comparing the two halves of the century, provided strongly significant results in the numbers of days with extreme rain. Using a more general approach, the number of Fourier transform extreme amplitudes also differed significantly. Increasingly heavy events during the summer monsoon season, and partly in the pre-and post-monsoon seasons, are offset by a weakening in the winter monsoon season, so that the annual mean rainfall does not show a significant trend over the Meghalaya Hills. Apart from a greater number of years with noticeable extreme rainfall events in the second half of the twentieth century, we can also observe a more pronounced quasi-periodicity of 10-20 and 30-60 days during the same period. The detection of the latter periodicity indicates that the Madden-Julian oscillation plays an important role in the formation of extreme rainfall events over the Meghalaya Hills during extreme monsoon years.

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Trends in the rainfall pattern over India

Cited by 590 publications

References 8 publications

Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient

Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient

Characteristic features of hourly rainfall in India

Variation in the orographic extreme rain events over the Meghalaya Hills in northeast India in the two halves of the twentieth century

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