Trends in the burden of pancreatic cancer due to high fasting plasma glucose in China, 1990-2019, and projections until 2029

Abstract

Aim: This study aimed to analyze the burden of high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG)-induced pancreatic cancer deaths in China, to compare the long-term trend of mortality from this condition in China during 1990–2019, and to predict the trend for the next 10 years. Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 were used for this research. The burden of pancreatic cancer in China between 1990 and 2019 due to HFPG was investigated, and the burden was stratified by sex and age. The age–period–cohort analysis was used to determine the contributions of age, period, and cohort effects of HFPG on pancreatic cancer. The mortality from the disease during 2020–2039 was projected using the Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) model. Results: From 1990 to 2019, HFPG led to a significant increase in the number of deaths from pancreatic cancer and the mortality rate in China. The age-standardized mortality rate of pancreatic cancer attributable to high fasting plasma glucose per 100,000 individuals in China increased from 0.199 in 1990 to 0.413 in 2019 (average annual percentage change of 2.53 [95% confidence interval, 2.19–2.86]).The number of deaths and mortality rates were consistently higher in men than in women. Mortality rates varied with age, with the highest number of deaths occurring in people aged 70–74 years and the highest mortality rate at 85 years of age. The BAPC method was used to predict the mortality rate of pancreatic cancer up to 2029, which revealed that both demonstrated a trend of slow growth, with women showing a decreasing trend and men showing an increasing trend. Conclusion: The results of this study provide strong evidence that the number of deaths and mortality rate from pancreatic cancer due to HFPG have shown a clear upward trend in China over the past 30 years. This observation highlights the need to urgently solve the issues in the treatment of pancreatic cancer. Furthermore, lifestyle intervention policies should be implemented in China to effectively control pancreatic cancer mortality.