Trends in the annual extreme rainfall events of 1 to 3 days duration over India

Rakhecha, P. R.; Soman, M. K.

doi:10.1007/bf00867053

Cited by 61 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…The second component explains 24.0% of the variance in the matrix and is dominated by high loadings on variables related to the most extreme events. The component scores (Figure 3), which are orthogonal to the scores from the first factor, reveal a highly significant upward trend (ρ = 0.00) indicating an increase consistent with numerical simulations by Bhaskaran et al (1995) and May (2002) and the empirical work revealing the detailed spatial patterns in extreme precipitation events by Rakhecha and Soman (1994) and Sen Roy and Balling (2004). As seen in Table 1, however, five of our 23 indices were not highly related to either of the two principal components.…”

Section: Extreme Percentsupporting

confidence: 76%

“…India is of interest given several modelling studies that have explicitly shown that an increase in GHG concentrations should substantially increase moisture transport into India, leading to an increase in extreme precipitation events (Bhaskaran et al, 1995;May, 2002). In addition, Rakhecha and Soman (1994) analysed annual extreme precipitation events of one to three days' duration for 316 stations across India for the period 1901 to 1980 and found an overall upward trend in the data. While our focus in this paper is on the intercomparison of the extreme precipitation indices, we anticipate finding an overall upward trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in the subcontinent as reported by Sen Roy and Balling (2004).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Evaluation of extreme precipitation indices using daily records (1910–2000) from India

Roy

Balling

2009

Weather

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Section: Extreme Percentsupporting

confidence: 76%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of extreme precipitation indices using daily records (1910–2000) from India

Roy

Balling

2009

Weather

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“…The severe rains have a substantial socio-economic impact in tropical areas which are dependent on agriculture and prone to natural hazards such as flooding and mass movements. Thus, in recent decades in India, many authors have analysed extreme rainfall series for periods of different lengths, using data from different rain-gauge networks and a variety of methods (Rakhecha and Soman 1994;Dhar and Nandargi 1995;Roy and Balling 2004;Goswami et al 2006;Rajeevan et al 2008;Guhathakurta et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variation in the orographic extreme rain events over the Meghalaya Hills in northeast India in the two halves of the twentieth century

Prokop

Walanus

2014

Theor Appl Climatol

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The daily rainfall data for the twentieth century, from three stations across the region, constitute the basis for statistical analysis. However, the low signal-to-noise ratio makes it difficult to find any significant departure from the simplest null hypothesis of the stability of the rain record at individual stations in northeast India. Only the coarsest possible view, i.e. comparing the two halves of the century, provided strongly significant results in the numbers of days with extreme rain. Using a more general approach, the number of Fourier transform extreme amplitudes also differed significantly. Increasingly heavy events during the summer monsoon season, and partly in the pre-and post-monsoon seasons, are offset by a weakening in the winter monsoon season, so that the annual mean rainfall does not show a significant trend over the Meghalaya Hills. Apart from a greater number of years with noticeable extreme rainfall events in the second half of the twentieth century, we can also observe a more pronounced quasi-periodicity of 10-20 and 30-60 days during the same period. The detection of the latter periodicity indicates that the Madden-Julian oscillation plays an important role in the formation of extreme rainfall events over the Meghalaya Hills during extreme monsoon years.

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“…Also earlier results of Srivastava et al [1992] and Goswami et al [2006] indicate that the change in the summer monsoon rainfall is not statistically significant. However, examination of extreme rainfall events has revealed that at several locations across India there are significant trends in the occurrences of heavy rain events during the summer monsoon season [Rakhecha and Soman, 1994;Sinha Ray and Srivastava, 2000;Goswami et al, 2006]. Sen Roy and Balling [2004] studied 903 different time series of 7 extreme rainfall indices of 129 stations for the period 1910-2000 in India and brought out that 61% of these time series show significant increasing trend.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in the characteristics of rain events in India

Dash¹,

Kulkarni²,

Mohanty³

et al. 2009

J. Geophys. Res.

298

168

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[1] Daily gridded (1°Â 1°) rainfall data prepared by the India Meteorological Department for the period have been used in this study to examine possible changes in the frequency of rain events in India in terms of their duration and intensity per day. So far as the duration is concerned, a rain event is classified as short, long, dry, or prolonged dry spell. Similarly in terms of intensity, a rainy day is considered as low, moderate, or heavy. Changes in the frequency of these events have great relevance from the point of view of climate change. Threshold and limiting values for defining the heavy and moderate rain days are calculated in accordance with the gamma probability distribution. Results show that the frequencies of moderate and low rain days considered over the entire country have significantly decreased in the last half century. On the basis of the duration of rain events it is inferred that long spells show a significant decreasing trend over India as a whole while short and dry spells indicate an increasing tendency with 5% significance. The characteristics of rain events are also examined over six homogenous rainfall zones separately since the spatial distribution of rainfall over India shows large variability. In this study, the changes in the frequencies of different categories of rain events suggest weakening of the summer monsoon circulation over India. This hypothesis of a weakening of monsoon circulation is supported by significant reduction in the 850 hPa wind fields in the National

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Trends in the annual extreme rainfall events of 1 to 3 days duration over India

Cited by 61 publications

References 6 publications

Evaluation of extreme precipitation indices using daily records (1910–2000) from India

Evaluation of extreme precipitation indices using daily records (1910–2000) from India

Variation in the orographic extreme rain events over the Meghalaya Hills in northeast India in the two halves of the twentieth century

Changes in the characteristics of rain events in India

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