Trends in solar spectral irradiance variability in the visible and infrared

Harder, J. W.; Fontenla, J. M.; Pilewskie, P.; Richard, E. C.; Woods, Thomas N.

doi:10.1029/2008gl036797

Cited by 235 publications

(322 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(27 reference statements)

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“…Recent measurements of SSI by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite showed disagreement with previous measurements (Harder et al, 2009). In particular, SORCE observations show three to five times more variability in UV radiation than predicted by proxy model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…The scheme calculates the temporal evolution of 57 chemical species described by a system of 199 chemical reactions. The corresponding chemistry module is built by the Kinetic PreProcessor (Damian et al, 2002) and is integrated using a third-order Rosenbrock solver (Hairer and Wanner, 1996). For the purpose of this study, this chemical model was modified to include an on-line calculation of the photolysis rates.…”

Section: Photochemical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A simple framework for modelling the photochemical response to solar spectral irradiance variability in the stratosphere

et al. 2012

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Abstract. The stratosphere is thought to play a central role in the atmospheric response to solar irradiance variability. Recent observations suggest that the spectral solar irradiance (SSI) variability involves significant time-dependent spectral variations, with variable degrees of correlation between wavelengths, and new reconstructions are being developed. In this paper, we propose a simplified modelling framework to characterise the effect of short term SSI variability on stratospheric ozone. We focus on the pure photochemical effect, for it is the best constrained one. The photochemical effect is characterised using an ensemble simulation approach with multiple linear regression analysis. A photochemical column model is used with interactive photolysis for this purpose. Regression models and their coefficients provide a characterisation of the stratospheric ozone response to SSI variability and will allow future inter-comparisons between different SSI reconstructions. As a first step in this study, and to allow comparison with past studies, we take the representation of SSI variability from the Lean (1997) solar minimum and maximum spectra. First, solar maximum-minimum response is analysed for all chemical families and partitioning ratios, and is compared with past studies. The ozone response peaks at 0.18 ppmv (approximately 3 %) at 37 km altitude. Second, ensemble simulations are regressed following two linear models. In the simplest case, an adjusted coefficient of determinationR 2 larger than 0.97 is found throughout the stratosphere using two predictors, namely the previous day's ozone perturbation and the current day's solar irradiance perturbation. A better accuracy (R 2 larger than 0.9992) is achieved with an additional predictor, the previous day's solar irradiance perturbation. The regression models also provide simple parameterisations of the ozone perturbation due to SSI variability. Their skills as proxy models are evaluated independently against the photochemistry column model. The bias and RMS error of the best regression model are found smaller than 1 % and 15 % of the ozone response, respectively. Sensitivities to initial conditions and to magnitude of the SSI variability are also discussed.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 83%

Section: Photochemical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A simple framework for modelling the photochemical response to solar spectral irradiance variability in the stratosphere

et al. 2012

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“…Thus, we conclude that the solar UV variations presented in Harder et al (2009) andHaigh et al (2010) are incorrect, and that the long-term calibrations of the SORCE S1M and SORCE SOLSTICE instruments need to be revised.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…Figures S5 and S2 in the on-line supplement to Harder et al (2009) Figure 6(b), we can then estimate the magnitude of the error in the SIM calibration terms that would be required to produce the SIM results shown in this figure. Calculating these values for selected UV wavelengths, we find that the value of . (A,t) in Eq.…”

Section: T(at) T Oe-t(at-to)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar UV variations during the decline of Cycle 23

DeLand

Cebula

2012

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

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change in solar physics. Our analysis of short-tenn solar variability is much less sensitive to residual instrument response changes than the observations of long-term variations. The SORCE long-term UV results can be explained by undercorrection of instrument response changes during the first few years of measurements, rather than requiring an unexpected change in the physical behavior of the Sun.

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“…Composites of observed UV spectral solar irradiance (SSI) had shown little variation in the spectral shape, such that at all wavelengths they exhibit similar temporal variations to TSI , and this has been reflected in centennial reconstructions of SSI (Lean 2000;Krivova et al 2009). However, recent observations of the descent into the current ''unusual'' (for the space age) solar minimum (Lockwood 2010) cast doubt on this as they show more variability in the UV and considerable change in spectral shape (Harder et al 2009). This implies that at the wavelengths responsible for stratospheric modulation, centennial variation may be greater than previously thought.…”

Section: Paleoclimate Studies and Solar Proxiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar Influence on Global and Regional Climates

Lockwood

2012

Surv Geophys

149

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The literature relevant to how solar variability influences climate is vast-but much has been based on inadequate statistics and non-robust procedures. The common pitfalls are outlined in this review. The best estimates of the solar influence on the global mean air surface temperature show relatively small effects, compared with the response to anthropogenic changes (and broadly in line with their respective radiative forcings). However, the situation is more interesting when one looks at regional and season variations around the global means. In particular, recent research indicates that winters in Eurasia may have some dependence on the Sun, with more cold winters occurring when the solar activity is low. Advances in modelling ''top-down'' mechanisms, whereby stratospheric changes influence the underlying troposphere, offer promising explanations of the observed phenomena. In contrast, the suggested modulation of low-altitude clouds by galactic cosmic rays provides an increasingly inadequate explanation of observations.

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Trends in solar spectral irradiance variability in the visible and infrared

Cited by 235 publications

References 27 publications

A simple framework for modelling the photochemical response to solar spectral irradiance variability in the stratosphere

A simple framework for modelling the photochemical response to solar spectral irradiance variability in the stratosphere

Solar UV variations during the decline of Cycle 23

Solar Influence on Global and Regional Climates

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