Trends in Severe Local Storm Watch Verification at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center

Anthony, Richard W.; Leftwich, Preston W.

doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1992)007<0613:tislsw>2.0.co;2

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…His specific recommendation that the forecasts apply to a rectangular area with a length 1.5 times its width anticipates the format adopted shortly after tornado and severe local storm forecasts were first issued officially by the National Weather Service in the early 1950s (Galway 1989). Some of the practical difficulties associated with verifying tornado forecasts that were identified by these early writers have not yet been satisfactorily resolved more than 100 years later (e.g., see Anthony and Leftwich 1992;Doswell et al 1990;Mason 1989). To a considerable degree these problems exist for all forecasts that are not made on a regular basis and for which routine observations are not available.…”

Section: Issues In Forecast Verification: 1880s and 1990smentioning

confidence: 99%

The Finley Affair: A Signal Event in the History of Forecast Verification

Murphy¹

1996

Wea. Forecasting

169

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In 1884 a paper by J. P. Finley appeared in the American Meteorological Journal describing the results of an experimental tornado forecasting program in the central and eastern United States. Finley's paper reported ''percentages of verifications'' exceeding 95%, where this index of performance was defined as the percentage of correct tornado/no-tornado forecasts. Within six months, three papers had appeared that identified deficiencies in Finley's method of verification and/or proposed alternative measures of forecasting performance in the context of this 2 1 2 verification problem. During the period from 1885 to 1893, several other authors in the United States and Europe, in most cases stimulated either by Finley's paper or by the three early responses, made noteworthy contributions to methods-oriented and practices-oriented discussions of issues related to forecast verification in general and verification of tornado forecasts in particular. The burst of verification-related activities during the period 1884-1893 is referred to here as the ''Finley affair.'' It marked the beginning of substantive conceptual and methodological developments and discussions in the important subdiscipline of forecast verification. This paper describes the events that constitute the Finley affair in some detail and attempts to place this affair in proper historical context from the perspective of the mid-1990s. Whatever their individual strengths and weaknesses, the measures introduced during the period from 1884 to 1893 have withstood important tests of time-for example, these measures have been rediscovered on one or more occasions and they are still widely used today (generally under names assigned since 1900). Moreover, many of the issues vis-à-vis forecast verification that were first raised during the Finley affair remain issues of considerable importance more than 100 years later.

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Section: Issues In Forecast Verification: 1880s and 1990smentioning

confidence: 99%

The Finley Affair: A Signal Event in the History of Forecast Verification

Murphy¹

1996

Wea. Forecasting

169

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“…The demonstrated skill in forecasting tornadoes in tornado watches (Anthony and Leftwich 1992), and the need to forecast the environment of tornadic storms to apply the regression equation at Eq. (4), indicate that the success rate for forecasts of tornado intensity will not be high.…”

Section: Prediction Equation For Tornado Intensitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationships between Tornado Intensity and Various Wind and Thermodynamic Variables

Colquhoun¹,

Riley²

1996

Wea. Forecasting

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Statistical relationships between tornado intensity and various stability and wind-related parameters are determined from a dataset of more than 200 tornado proximity soundings. Soundings were obtained from two sources: the University of Missouri and from analyses. The surface to 600 hPa wind shear, streamwise vorticity, storm velocity, and storm-relative environmental helicity are shown to be best correlated with tornado intensity. A multiple regression analysis produced an equation relating tornado intensity to the lifted index and the surface to 600 hPa wind shear. This relationship could be used operationally to predict tornado intensity. Mean temperature , dewpoint temperature, and wind profiles are presented for each tornado intensity category and these may be useful as input to numerical thunderstorm simulations. Progressively cooler temperatures and increasing wind speed and vertical wind shear are evident with increasing tornado intensity. A modified form of the bulk Richardson number is derived to assist the forecasting of isolated supercell thunderstorm occurrence. The modified form uses parameters that are readily available to the operational forecaster.

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Severe Convective Storms: A Brief History of Science and Practice

Crawford¹,

Kessler²

1996

Historical Essays on Meteorology 1919–1995

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Trends in Severe Local Storm Watch Verification at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center

Cited by 7 publications

References 0 publications

The Finley Affair: A Signal Event in the History of Forecast Verification

The Finley Affair: A Signal Event in the History of Forecast Verification

Relationships between Tornado Intensity and Various Wind and Thermodynamic Variables

Severe Convective Storms: A Brief History of Science and Practice

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