Trends in rainfall regime over Israel, 1975–2010, and their relationship to large-scale variability

Ziv, Baruch; Saaroni, Hadas; Pargament, Roee; Harpaz, Tzvi; Alpert, Pinhas

doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0414-x

Cited by 111 publications

(101 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…These results are consistent with the fact that annual rainfall in Israel was lower than the 1931-1990 average for 12 of the 15 years of the research period. They support recent findings from both climate-change modeling [3] and rainfall-change trends [50,51] that suggest a decrease in water availability and, consequently, the drying of vegetation across wide desert fringe ecosystems. The results presented here and their ecological implications necessitate further, focused research on change in shrubland conditions across semi-arid regions using both field and remote-sensing techniques.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…There is distinctive evidence of decreasing biomass across a wide range of shrublands, dwarf-shrublands and plantations from the Avisur Highlands (45 cm/yr) southward. Since human disturbance had not increased across the study area (e.g., [33][34][35]), these results support the findings of Ziv et al [50] and Kafle and Bruins [51] and suggesting increasing aridity in desert fringe ecosystems. However, it is important to mention that the finding reported for the areas south of Yatir Forest is the result of the afforestation works initiated by the Forest Commission of the JNF (Jewish National Fund) during the late 1990s in order to combat desertification in this region.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

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Remote Sensing of Shrubland Drying in the South-East Mediterranean, 1995–2010: Water-Use-Efficiency-Based Mapping of Biomass Change

Shoshany

Karnibad

2015

Remote Sensing

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Recent climate studies of the South-Eastern Mediterranean indicate an increase in drought frequencies and decreasing water resources since the turn of the century. A four-phase methodology was developed for assessing above-ground biomass changes in shrublands caused by these recent trends. Firstly, we generalized the function SB = 0.008MAP 1.54 describing the shrublands above-ground biomass (SB) dependence on mean annual precipitation (MAP) for areas of full shrub cover. Secondly, relationships between MAP and NDVI were formalized, allowing an estimation of precipitation levels from observed NDVI values (MAPNDVI). Thirdly, relative water-use efficiency (RWUE) was defined as the ratio between MAPNDVI and MAP. Finally, the function SBRWUE = 0.008MAP 0.54 + RWUE was formalized, utilizing RWUE in estimating shrublands biomass. This methodology was implemented using Landsat TM images (1994 to 2011) for an area between the Judean Mountains and the deserts bordering them to the east and south. More than 50% of the study area revealed low biomass change (±0.2 kg/m

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

Remote Sensing of Shrubland Drying in the South-East Mediterranean, 1995–2010: Water-Use-Efficiency-Based Mapping of Biomass Change

Shoshany

Karnibad

2015

Remote Sensing

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“…While rainfall trends in Mediterranean Europe are significant and predominantly negative, in the MENA they are generally not significant, partly related to the difficulty of establishing representative precipitation measurement networks in this arid region (Xoplaki et al 2004;Hoerling et al 2012;Tanarhte et al 2012;Norrant-Romand and Douguedroit 2014;Ziv et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century

et al. 2016

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The ensemble results of CMIP5 climate models that applied the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been used to investigate climate change and temperature extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Uncertainty evaluation of climate projections indicates good model agreement for temperature but much less for precipitation. Results imply that climate warming in the MENA is strongest in summer while elsewhere it is typically stronger in winter. The summertime warming extends the thermal low at the surface from South Asia across the Middle East over North Africa, as the hot desert climate intensifies and becomes more extreme. Observations and model calculations of the recent past consistently show increasing heat extremes, which are projected to accelerate in future. The number of warm days and nights may increase sharply. On average in the MENA, the maximum temperature during the hottest days in the recent past was about 43°C, which could increase to about 46°C by the middle of the century and reach almost 50°C by the end of the century, the latter according to the RCP8.5 (business-as-usual) scenario. This will have important consequences for human health and society.

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“…For example, Ziv et al [5] analyzed changes in the precipitation regime of Israel showing a statistically non-significant decreasing trend prevailing in most of the country. The majority of Israel has significant precipitation decrease only during spring.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A positive NAO phase leads to more intense precipitation over northern Europe, whereas a negative NAO phase causes a precipitation shift towards southern Europe [8]. The influence of NAO on precipitation in the MR has been investigated by a number of authors [5,8,[10][11][12][13][14]. A study by Sušelj and Bergant [11] showed significant negative correlation between NAOi and precipitation in Slovenia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability of seasonal and annual precipitation in Slovenia and its correlation with large-scale atmospheric circulation

et al. 2016

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This paper examines temporal and spatial variability and trends of annual and seasonal precipitation in Slovenia and their relationship with three atmospheric circulation patterns represented by their indices: North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOi), Mediterranean Oscillation index (MOi) and Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi). Data from 45 precipitation stations were used for the period 1963-2012. Mean annual precipitation varies from 736 mm in eastern Slovenia to 2,518 mm in northwestern Slovenia. A significant annual precipitation decrease (from −3% to −6% per decade) is observed in western Slovenia. Significant negative trends are observed in southwestern Slovenia in summer (from −4% to −10% per decade) and near the Adriatic coast in spring (from −6% to −10% per decade). Non-significant negative and positive trends are observed in winter and autumn, respectively. Results indicate significant correlations between winter precipitation and MOi (from −0.3 to −0.7), NAOi (from −0.3 to −0.6) and WeMOi (from 0.3 to 0.6). Significant WeMOi influence is observed in spring and autumn, while NAOi and MOi influence has not been detected. Annual precipitation and WeMOi are significantly correlated in central and eastern Slovenia, while significant NAOi and MOi influence is observed in western Slovenia (with the larger area covered by MOi influence).

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Trends in rainfall regime over Israel, 1975–2010, and their relationship to large-scale variability

Cited by 111 publications

References 39 publications

Remote Sensing of Shrubland Drying in the South-East Mediterranean, 1995–2010: Water-Use-Efficiency-Based Mapping of Biomass Change

Remote Sensing of Shrubland Drying in the South-East Mediterranean, 1995–2010: Water-Use-Efficiency-Based Mapping of Biomass Change

Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century

Variability of seasonal and annual precipitation in Slovenia and its correlation with large-scale atmospheric circulation

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