Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy

“…The majority of people in sub-Saharan countries (∼85%) live in rural areas and are engaged in agricultural activities; thus farming is a principal source of their livelihoods (The World Bank, 2009). Barrios et al (2010) provide evidence that long-term trends in rainfall have affected economic growth rates in sub-Saharan Africa in the past. Recently, long-term drying trends were observed in several African regions, for example, in Nigeria (Odjugo, 2010), the western Sahel Lebel and Ali, 2009), tropical North Africa (Ting et al, 2009;Kawase et al, 2010;Misra, 2010) and in the eastern part of southern tropical Africa (Yin and Gruber, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

A conceptual model for assessing rainfall and vegetation trends in sub‐Saharan Africa from satellite data

Hościło

Balzter

Bartholomé³

et al. 2014

Int. J. Climatol

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Policymakers, governments and aid agencies require operational environmental monitoring in support of evidence-based policy-making and resource deployment in crisis situations. For Africa, this is only feasible at sub-continental scale with a large network of automated meteorological stations, a large number of highly coordinated field observers or with satellite remote sensing. The challenge with satellite data lies in the derivation of meaningful environmental indicators. This article describes a conceptual framework for understanding satellite-derived indicators of rainfall and vegetation greenness trends over Africa. It attributes observed vegetation changes to climatic (i.e. rainfall linked) and non-climatic drivers. A decade of annual rainfall and vegetation data over sub-Saharan Africa was analysed using satellite-based rainfall estimates [Famine Early Warning System Rainfall Estimation 2.0 (FEWSNET RFE 2.0)] from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) Climate Prediction Centre and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from the Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre Vegetation (SPOT-VGT) sensor. Rainfall and vegetation greenness trends were analysed for 759 administrative regions of sub-Saharan Africa to identify those regions that have experienced a negative, positive or stable rainfall/vegetation trend over the period [2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010]. The character of the relationship between the annual rainfall and max NDVI trends were examined to identify areas where the changes in greenness could be attributed to climatic (rainfall) and non-climatic (human land use or ecological disturbance) changes. Regions where increasing rainfall was associated with vegetation greening were found in West Africa, Central African Republic, West Cameroon and northeastern part of South Africa, whereas areas with evidence of 'climatic vegetation degradation' were located in Southern Madagascar, Nigeria, Kenya and the Garden Route region of South Africa.

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“…For a cross-country analysis, Barrios et al (2010) use panel climatic data, in particular rainfall anomalies and data from 1960 to 1990 of 60 countries including 22 African countries. They find that since the sixties a decrease in rainfall is responsible of the reduction between 15 and 40% of the gap in the African GDP per capita compare to other developing countries.…”

Section: Natural Disasters Economic Growth and Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural Disasters and Human Mobility

Mbaye

Zimmermann

2016

IRERE

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractThis paper reviews the effect of natural disasters on human mobility or migration. Although there is an increase of natural disasters and migration recently and more patterns to observe, the relationship remains complex. While some authors find that disasters increase migration, others show that they have only a marginal or no effect or are even negative. Human mobility appears to be an insurance mechanism against environmental shocks and there are different transmission channels which can explain the relationship between natural disasters and migration. Moreover, migrants' remittances help to decrease households' vulnerability to shocks but also dampen their adverse effects. The paper provides a discussion of policy implications and potential future research avenues.

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Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy

Cited by 287 publications

References 44 publications

The distributional impact of large dams: Evidence from cropland productivity in Africa

The distributional impact of large dams: Evidence from cropland productivity in Africa

A conceptual model for assessing rainfall and vegetation trends in sub‐Saharan Africa from satellite data

Natural Disasters and Human Mobility

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