Trends in Precipitation Extremes over Southeast Asia

Endo, Noritaka; Matsumoto, Jun; Lwin, Tun

doi:10.2151/sola.2009-043

Cited by 140 publications

(107 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…These results are essentially consistent with independent similar studies by Qian (2008) and Qian et al (2013). Decadal or longer-scale rainfall trends (e.g., Endo et al 2009;Villafuerte and Matsumoto 2015) should also appear through amplitude modulations of the diurnal cycles associated with variations of SST and moisture transport.…”

Section: Diurnal Cycle Observed Around the Imc Coastlinessupporting

confidence: 92%

Maritime continent coastlines controlling Earth’s climate

Yamanaka

Ogino

et al. 2018

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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During the Monsoon Asian Hydro−Atmosphere Scientific Research and Prediction Initiative (MAHASRI; 2006-16), we carried out two projects over the Indonesian maritime continent (IMC), constructing the Hydrometeorological Array for Intraseasonal Variation−Monsoon Automonitoring (HARIMAU; 2005-10) radar network and setting up a prototype institute for climate studies, the Maritime Continent Center of Excellence (MCCOE; 2009-14). Here, we review the climatological features of the world's largest "regional" rainfall over the IMC studied in these projects. The fundamental mode of atmospheric variability over the IMC is the diurnal cycle generated along coastlines by land−sea temperature contrast: afternoon land becomes hotter than sea by clear-sky insolation before noon, with the opposite contrast before sunrise caused by evening rainfall-induced "sprinkler"-like land cooling (different from the extratropical infrared cooling on clear nights). Thus, unlike the extratropics, the diurnal cycle over the IMC is more important in the rainy season. The intraseasonal, seasonal to annual, and interannual climate variabilities appear as amplitude modulations of the diurnal cycle. For example, in Jawa and Bali the rainy season is the southern hemispheric summer, because land heating in the clear morning and water vapor transport by afternoon sea breeze is strongest in the season of maximum insolation. During El Niño, cooler sea water surrounding the IMC makes morning maritime convection and rainfall weaker than normal. Because the diurnal cycle is almost the only mechanism generating convective clouds systematically near the equator with little cyclone activity, the local annual rainfall amount in the tropics is a steeply decreasing function of coastal distance (e-folding scale 100-300 km), and regional annual rainfall is an increasing function of "coastline density" (coastal length/land area) measured at a horizontal resolution of 100 km. The coastline density effect explains why rainfall and latent heating over the IMC are twice the global mean for an area that makes up only 4% of the Earth's surface. The diurnal cycles appearing almost synchronously over the whole IMC generate teleconnections between the IMC convection and the global climate. Thus, high-resolution (<< 100 km; << 1 day) observations and models over the IMC are essential to improve both local disaster prevention and global climate prediction.

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Section: Diurnal Cycle Observed Around the Imc Coastlinessupporting

confidence: 92%

Maritime continent coastlines controlling Earth’s climate

Yamanaka

Ogino

et al. 2018

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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“…Decreasing trends in rainfall over the past 50+ years for this region (Fig. 2) are consistent with recent regional climate trends (Endo et al, 2009;Nguyen et al, 2010;Ho et al, 2011;Phan et al, 2014;Schmidt-Thomé et al, 2015), and it is believed that increased BB aerosol loading during the spring may be partially responsible. The removal of atmospheric aerosols by nucleation and precipitation scavenging processes mitigate local and regional air quality in addition to potential effects on cloud and precipitation evolution downstream (Pruppacher and Klett, 1997;Levin and Cotton, 2009).…”

Section: Background and Motivationsupporting

confidence: 85%

Coupled Aerosol-Cloud Systems over Northern Vietnam during 7-SEAS/BASELInE: A Radar and Modeling Perspective

Loftus

Tsay

Pantina

et al. 2016

Aerosol Air Qual. Res.

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The 2013 7-SEAS/BASELInE campaign over northern Southeast Asia (SEA) provided, for the first time ever, comprehensive ground-based W-band radar measurements of the low-level stratocumulus (Sc) systems that often exist during the spring over northern Vietnam in the presence of biomass-burning aerosols. Although spatially limited, groundbased remote sensing observations are generally free of the surface contamination and signal attenuation effects that often hinder space-borne measurements of these low-level cloud systems. Such observations permit detailed measurements of structures and lifecycles of these clouds as part of a broader effort to study potential impacts of these coupled aerosolcloud systems on local and regional weather and air quality. Introductory analyses of the W-band radar data show these Sc systems generally follow a diurnal cycle, with peak occurrences during the nighttime and early morning hours, often accompanied by light precipitation. Preliminary results from idealized simulations of Sc development over land based on the observations reveal the familiar response of increased numbers and smaller sizes of cloud droplets, along with suppressed drizzle formation, as aerosol concentrations increase. Slight reductions in simulated W-band reflectivity values also are seen with increasing aerosol concentrations and result primarily from decreased droplet sizes. As precipitation can play a large role in removing aerosol from the atmosphere, and thereby improving air quality locally, quantifying feedbacks between aerosols and cloud systems over this region are essential, particularly given the negative impacts of biomass burning on human health in SEA. Such an endeavor should involve improved modeling capabilities along with comprehensive measurements of time-dependent aerosol and cloud profiles.

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“…Observations have indicated notable changes in climate in the recent decades, including extremes, although the trends in extreme temperature tend to be more statistically significant and spatially coherent compared with extreme precipitation (e.g., Manton et al 2001;Choi et al 2009;Endo et al 2009;Caesar et al 2011). Past extreme rainfall events have resulted in heavy flooding in Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines that have destructive effects on population, infrastructure and the environment (e.g., Tangang et al 2008;Yumul et al 2011;Komori et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of Present Climate over Southeast Asia Using the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model

Cruz

Sasaki

2017

SOLA

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This study evaluates the performance of the Non-hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM) in simulating the present climate over Southeast Asia to determine its applicability in downscaling climate projections in the region. Simulations from 1989 to 2008 are conducted over the region at 25-km resolution using boundary conditions from the ECMWF ERA-Interim dataset. The topographic effect on rainfall is well represented in NHRCM but can result in wet (dry) biases in the windward (leeward) side of mountains. NHRCM is able to reduce the overestimated rainfall in ERA-Interim, particularly over eastern Philippines and in the Maritime Continent, with improvements in spatial patterns. Both seasonality and daily distribution of rainfall are represented in most regions. On the other hand, there is a tendency to underestimate the number of wet days, especially during the respective wet season of the subregion, and to overestimate daily rainfall intensity. NHRCM also has an overall cold model bias, which reduces the warm bias in ERA-Interim, except for some parts of Indochina during boreal winter and spring. These results indicate the improved representation of present climate in Southeast Asia using NHRCM, and its potential applicability in downscaling climate projections to increase projected climate scenarios for the region.(Citation: Cruz, F. T., and H. Sasaki, 2017: Simulation of present climate over Southeast Asia using the Non-hydrostatic Regional Climate Model. SOLA, 13, 13−18,

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Trends in Precipitation Extremes over Southeast Asia

Cited by 140 publications

References 20 publications

Maritime continent coastlines controlling Earth’s climate

Maritime continent coastlines controlling Earth’s climate

Coupled Aerosol-Cloud Systems over Northern Vietnam during 7-SEAS/BASELInE: A Radar and Modeling Perspective

Simulation of Present Climate over Southeast Asia Using the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model

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