Trends in HIV and AIDS based on HIV/AIDS surveillance data in Japan

Matsuyama, Yutaka; Hashimoto, Shuji; Ichikawa, Seiichi; Nakamura, Yosikazu; Kidokoro, Tosihide; Umeda, Tamami; Kamakura, Mitsuhiro; Kimura, Satoshi; Fukutomi, Kazuo; Ikeda, Chieko; Kihara, Masahiro

doi:10.1093/ije/28.6.1149

Cited by 13 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…To obtain an estimate of all HIV infections, the reciprocal of this ratio was multiplied with the number of all reported infections. 9 Data were processed and analyzed using the Excel 2000, and SPSS 10 programs.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

HIV/AIDS epidemic features and trends in Saudi Arabia

Al-Mazrou

Al-Jeffri

Fidail

et al. 2005

Annals of Saudi Medicine

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BACKGROUNDMore than 60 million persons have been infected since AIDS was described in 1981. By the end of 2003, an estimated 40 million individuals were living with HIV globally. The surveillance of HIV/AIDS still faces challenges in Saudi Arabia. This study describes the pattern and characteristics of HIV/AIDS cases in Saudi Arabia.METHODSThis descriptive analytic study describes the reported HIV/AIDS data for all notifiable cases during the period 1984 to 2003 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Case definitions based on ELISA and Western Blot tests were used. Age, sex and regional distribution were studied in addition to survival rates.RESULTSAs of 2003, 1743 Saudi nationals and 6064 non-Saudi HIV cases were reported. Among Saudis, 872 were AIDS cases. Males accounted for 1329 HIV infections, comprising 77%, with a male-to-female ratio of about 3:1. Adults 15–49 years constituted 78% of cases, including 46% of cases infected through sexual activity, while 33% of reported HIV seropositive cases had already died. Most cases (67%) were registered in Jeddah, Riyadh and Dammam. Infection through blood transfusion declined with no reported cases since 2001.CONCLUSIONThe number of reported HIV infections in KSA has increased in the last few years. Using the coverage rate estimating method, the number of Saudi HIV infections since the emergence of the epidemic was estimated to be 2640 cases as of the beginning of the year 2004. The estimated number of HIV infections is almost one and one-half times the reported number, indicating that a problem of underreporting of HIV/AIDS cases still exists.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

HIV/AIDS epidemic features and trends in Saudi Arabia

Al-Mazrou

Al-Jeffri

Fidail

et al. 2005

Annals of Saudi Medicine

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“…Furthermore, the trend in the number of AIDS cases who were initially reported as having AIDS without having been previously reported as HIV-infected (initially reported AIDS cases) might reflect the number of people with undiagnosed HIV, which is important for monitoring through surveillance. 7 In Japan, the proportion of those reported to surveillance among people diagnosed with HIV and AIDS was indicated to be sufficiently high. 8 Highly active antiretroviral treatments have been widely used in cases diagnosed with HIV and/or AIDS since 1997.…”

Section: Cumulative Number Of People With Hiv Estimated From Surveillmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numbers of People with HIV/AIDS Reported and Not Reported to Surveillance in Japan

Hashimoto

Kawado

Murakami

et al. 2004

Journal of Epidemiology

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BACKGROUND: Trends in the numbers of Japanese patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) reported to the HIV/AIDS surveillance system in Japan were examined. We attempted to estimate the cumulative number of Japanese with HIV, including people with HIV not reported to the surveillance. METHODS: Data from the HIV/AIDS surveillance in Japan up to the end of 2002 were available. The number of unreported HIV cases was estimated using the back-calculation method. To evaluate this method, the number of reported HIV cases up to 1996 (before highly active antiretroviral treatments were widely available in Japan) was compared with the number estimated by the same method. RESULTS: The number of AIDS cases who were initially reported as having AIDS without having been reported as HIV-infected markedly increased as did the number of reported HIV cases. The number of AIDS cases who had been initially reported as HIV-infected and who were then reported as AIDS progression increased up to 1996 but decreased in the period of 1997-2002. The cumulative number of people with HIV at the end of 2002 was estimated as 14,000, which was 4.2 times higher than the number of reported HIV cases. The cumulative number of HIV cases reported up to 1996 was nearly equal to the number estimated by the above-mentioned method. CONCLUSIONS: HIV infection would appear to be spreading widely among Japanese population. The number of HIV cases actually reported to surveillance might still be low.

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“…The ratio has been revised several times, but the most recent studies adopt an estimate of 1/5.1 (reported/unreported), because approximately 19.6% of the AIDS cases reported up until the mid-1990s were previously diagnosed as being infected with HIV [30,32]. …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since implementation of the Law Concerning the Prevention of Infectious Diseases and Medical Care in 1999, replacing the previous law for HIV/AIDS in Japan, it has become difficult to link individuals initially categorized as (1) and later as (3) due to the altered administrative system [48]. Moreover, the Second Report was often delayed because many physicians did not feel particularly obliged to report AIDS cases that had already been documented as HIV infected [32]. Thus, owing to the suggestion that 'Second Reports are confusing', they became non-obligatory after 1999 and, since then, individuals categorized as such have not been included in the total number of AIDS cases.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lessons from previous predictions of HIV/AIDS in the United States and Japan: epidemiologic models and policy formulation

Nishiura

2007

Epidemiol Perspect Innov

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This paper critically discusses two previous studies concerned with predictions of HIV/AIDS in the United States and Japan during the early 1990s. Although the study in the US applied a historical theory, assuming normal distribution for the epidemic curve, the underlying infection process was not taken into account. In the Japan case, the true HIV incidence was estimated using the coverage ratio of previously diagnosed/undiagnosed HIV infections among AIDS cases, the assumptions of which were not supported by a firm theoretical understanding. At least partly because of failure to account for underlying mechanisms of the disease and its transmission, both studies failed to yield appropriate predictions of the future AIDS incidence. Further, in the Japan case, the importance of consistent surveillance data was not sufficiently emphasized or openly discussed and, because of this, revision of the AIDS reporting system has made it difficult to determine the total number of AIDS cases and apply a backcalculation method. Other widely accepted approaches can also fail to provide perfect predictions. Nevertheless, wrong policy direction could arise if we ignore important assumptions, methods and input data required to answer specific questions. The present paper highlights the need for appropriate assessment of specific modeling purposes and explicit listing of essential information as well as possible solutions to aid relevant policy formulation.

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Trends in HIV and AIDS based on HIV/AIDS surveillance data in Japan

Abstract: We suggest that the number of people with HIV among Japanese has continued to increase, and that the increase in the number of AIDS cases among Japanese is now slowing.

Cited by 13 publications

References 9 publications

HIV/AIDS epidemic features and trends in Saudi Arabia

HIV/AIDS epidemic features and trends in Saudi Arabia

Numbers of People with HIV/AIDS Reported and Not Reported to Surveillance in Japan

Lessons from previous predictions of HIV/AIDS in the United States and Japan: epidemiologic models and policy formulation

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