Trends in Fire Danger and Population Exposure along the Wildland–Urban Interface

Abstract

The increased risk of wildfires and associated smoke exposure in the United States is a growing public health problem, particularly along the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI). Using the measure of fire danger, the Energy Release Component, we define fire danger as the onset and duration of fire season, in the continental US, between 1979 and 2016. We then combine the measure of fire danger with census data to quantify changes in population fire exposure across the WUI. We determined that the largest increases in fire danger were observed in the Southwest, Intermountain, and Pacific Southwest regions. The increased fire danger, specifically during peak fire season, accounted for 6.1 more fires each year and 78,000 more acres burned each year, underscoring the link between fire danger and the risks of large fire occurrence and burn acreage. Finally, we observed significant population growth (121.2% between 1990 and 2010) within high-danger WUI areas, further implying significant increases in potential fire exposure.

Wildfire Variable Toxicity: Identifying Biomass Smoke Exposure Groupings through Transcriptomic Similarity Scoring

“…For example, in vitro models could be leveraged to more efficiently quantify transcriptomic responses across several doses to allow comparisons between per mass and per emission factor dosings . It is also important to consider other wildfire-relevant exposure conditions, such as those that include building material-related fuel types to capture potential exposures at the wildland urban interface …”

“…60 It is also important to consider other wildfire-relevant exposure conditions, such as those that include building material-related fuel types to capture potential exposures at the wildland urban interface. 61 Future research will also incorporate studies that implement inhalation-based exposure designs. These studies could further parse relationships when tissue-specific dosimetry is considered, in addition to the equal mass instillation oropharyngeal conditions considered here.…”

Human and infrastructure exposure to large wildfires in the United States

“…We show that 24% and 22% of observed trends in population exposure to re from 2000-2019 in CONUS and Western U.S., respectively, are attributable to population dynamics (e.g., WUI growth). This indicates that population increases in re impacted areas in the last two decades are only marginally accountable for the increase in population exposure to re 20,34 . By contrast, we nd that increased re extent during 2000-2019 intersected with population footprint from 2000 are responsible for a majority of the increased exposure.…”

“…A robust analysis of the impacts of large res on population and infrastructure requires exploring not only the trends and drivers of increasing re activity (i.e., hazard), but also the exposure to re hazards [18][19][20] .…”

Determination of Soil Contamination at the Wildland-Urban Interface after the 2021 Marshall Fire in Colorado, USA

“…2,5−7 The increased risk of catastrophic WUI wildfire events is exacerbated by the elevated potential for human-driven ignition, barriers to fire prevention and suppression, 8 and the high flammability of structures. 2,9 Compared to wildland fires, WUI fires can be particularly damaging to public health and costly for local economies, with potentially larger societal repercussions. Unfortunately, there are numerous global examples of the devastation wrought by WUI wildfires, including multiple fires in Greece and Portugal in 2023, the 2018 Camp Fire that destroyed Paradise, California, and the 2023 Lahaina fire in Maui, one of the deadliest wildfires in US history.…”