Trends in extreme precipitation indices across China detected using quantile regression

Fan, Lijun; Chen, Deliang

doi:10.1002/asl.671

Cited by 37 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 19 publications

(30 reference statements)

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“…The 95% confidence interval for the uncertainty is estimated using the 97.5th and 2.5th percentile values of the trend coefficient from the 1000 estimates. The trend was significant if the trend coefficient was significantly different from zero at a significance level of 0.05 [28,38,39]. The R "quantreg" [27] package was used for computation.…”

Section: Quantile Regressionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing Impacts of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Extreme Precipitation Distribution across the Mid-Atlantic United States

Dhakal

2019

Geosciences

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Almost every year, north Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) are responsible for significant socioeconomic losses across the Mid-Atlantic USA. However, the extent to which TC activity contributes to the changes in the probability distributions of the extreme precipitation have not yet been comprehensively characterized for this region. In this study, a quantile regression method was used to investigate the trends of the lower (τ = 0.2) and upper (τ = 0.8) quantiles of annual and seasonal daily maximum precipitation series for the region using the station-based daily precipitation data for the period 1950–2011. Results show that the rates of changes in the upper quantile have greatly strengthened for the region. Analysis of the spatial pattern of the lower and upper quantile trends for TC and non-TC extreme precipitation series shows that trends have larger magnitudes in most of the sites for TC precipitation series as compared with the non-TC precipitation series for both the lower and upper quantiles. Additionally, the highest trends are observed in the upper quantile for TC time series indicating that TC precipitation is contributing more to the upper tails of the extreme precipitation distribution as compared to the non-TC precipitation. Results from this study have implications for the improved design and reassessment of flood-controlling infrastructure.

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Section: Quantile Regressionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing Impacts of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Extreme Precipitation Distribution across the Mid-Atlantic United States

Dhakal

2019

Geosciences

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“…In view of the above, a number of studies have attempted to investigate the trend of climatic variables for the country. These studies have looked at the trends on the country scale (Kumar et al, ; Athar, ; Fan and Chen, ; Szabó et al, ), regional scales (Bhutiyani et al, ; Elnesr et al, ; Karpouzos and Kavalieratau, ; Duhan and Pandey, ; Duan et al, ), and at the individual stations (Sahu et al, , , , ; Beyene, ). In fact, local and regional scale analysis (Fischer and Ceppi, ; Babar and Ramesh, ) is more relevant to devise‐specific development and adaptation plans to mitigate negative effects of climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend analysis of seasonal rainfall and temperature pattern in Kalahandi, Bolangir and Koraput districts of Odisha, India

Panda

Sahu

2019

Atmospheric Science Letters

185

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Climate variability, particularly that of the annual air temperature and rainfall, has received a great deal of attention worldwide. The magnitude of the variability or fluctuations of the factors varies according to locations. Hence, examining the spatiotemporal dynamics of meteorological variables in the context of changing climate, particularly in countries where rainfed agriculture is predominant, is vital to assess climate-induced changes and suggest feasible adaptation strategies. To that end, the present study examines long-term changes and short-term fluctuations in monsoonal rainfall and temperature over Kalahandi, Bolangir and Koraput (hereafter KBK) districts in the state of Odisha. Both rainfall and temperature data for period of 1980-2017 were analyzed in this study. Statistical trend analysis techniques namely Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were used to examine and analyze the problems. The detailed analysis of the data for 37 years indicate that the annual maximum temperature and annual minimum temperature have shown an increasing trend, whereas the monsoon's maximum and minimum temperatures have shown a decreasing trend. Statistically significant trends are detected for rainfall and also the result is statistically significant at 99% confidence limit during the period of 1980-2017. Rainfall is showing a quite good increasing trend (Sen's slope = 4.034) for JJAS season. In the case of maximum temperature for the observed period, it showed a slight warming or increasing trend (Sen's slope = 0.29) while the minimum temperature trend showed a cooling trend (Sen's slope = −0.006) but result of maximum temperature trend analysis is statistically significant at 95% confidence limit, on the contrary, the trend analysis result of minimum temperature is not statistically significant.

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“…Changes in upper tails of extreme precipitation distributions often cause great climate disasters (Fan and Chen, ). Hence, our study has significant implication in environmental and infrastructural assessment as well as disaster risk management.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio‐temporal trends in daily precipitation extremes and their connection with North Atlantic tropical cyclones for the southeastern United States

Dhakal

Tharu

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In the southeastern United States, trends in upper quantile of annual maximum rainfall have greater magnitudes in most of the sites as compared with the mean trends. Analysis of the potential changes in the distribution of the extreme precipitation by separating the historical record into two periods, that is, before and after 1980, reveals that both mean and upper‐quantile trends have increasing and greater magnitudes in most of the sites for the latest time period.

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Trends in extreme precipitation indices across China detected using quantile regression

Cited by 37 publications

References 19 publications

Changing Impacts of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Extreme Precipitation Distribution across the Mid-Atlantic United States

Changing Impacts of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Extreme Precipitation Distribution across the Mid-Atlantic United States

Trend analysis of seasonal rainfall and temperature pattern in Kalahandi, Bolangir and Koraput districts of Odisha, India

Spatio‐temporal trends in daily precipitation extremes and their connection with North Atlantic tropical cyclones for the southeastern United States

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