Trends in Canadian surface temperature variability in the context of climate change

Turner, J.; Gyakum, John R.

doi:10.3137/ao1102.2010

Cited by 16 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 50 publications

(49 reference statements)

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“…The coldest intensity day is increasing slightly-from 23.5 standard deviations in the 1948-62 period to 24.3 standard deviations during the 1993-2007 period. This is consistent with the findings of Turner and Gyakum (2010), who found that while there are warming trends in the mean temperature of northwest Canada, cold anomalies relative to a running mean are not warming.…”

Section: B Methodologysupporting

confidence: 93%

“…Graversen et al (2008) showed that the vertical structure of the warming in the cold season arctic is greatest at the surface, implying less intense temperature inversions and therefore less intense arctic air masses, as measured by surface temperature. However, Turner and Gyakum (2010) found that, although the mean temperature was increasing in northwestern Canada, the intensity of the coldest temperatures relative to a 30-yr running mean was not changing significantly.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

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The Development of Arctic Air Masses in Northwest Canada and Their Behavior in a Warming Climate

Turner

Gyakum

2011

J. Climate

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Surface observations, soundings, and a thermodynamic budget are used to investigate the formation process of 93 arctic airmass events. The events involve very cold surface temperatures-an average of 242.88C at Norman Wells, a centrally located station in the formation region-and cooling in the 1000-500-hPa layer. A multistage process for their formation in northwestern Canada is proposed. This process is contrary to the classical conceptualization of extremely shallow, surface formations.In the first stage of formation, snow falls into a layer of unsaturated air in the lee of the Rocky Mountains, causing sublimational cooling and moistening the subcloud layer. Simultaneously, the midtroposphere is cooled by cloud-top radiation emissions. In the second stage, snowfall abates, the air column dries, and clearsky surface radiational cooling predominates, augmented by the high emissivity of fresh snow cover. The surface temperature falls very rapidly, up to a maximum of 188C day 21 in one event. In the final stage, after near-surface temperatures fall below the frost point, ice crystals and, nearer the surface, ice fog form. At the end of formation, there is cold-air damming, with a cold pool and anticyclone in the lee of the Rockies, lower pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, and an intense baroclinic zone oriented northwest to southeast along the mountains.There have been secular changes in the characteristics of the arctic air masses over the period 1948-2008. The surface temperature during the events has become warmer, and the air masses are deeper and moister. The 1000-hPa diabatic cooling during events, which includes latent heat and radiative processes, has decreased by 2.28C day 21 .

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Section: B Methodologysupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

The Development of Arctic Air Masses in Northwest Canada and Their Behavior in a Warming Climate

Turner

Gyakum

2011

J. Climate

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“…The Mackenzie River is a highly effective conveyor that transports continental heat into the Beaufort Sea contributing to the overall heat budget for sea ice melting. While Mackenzie discharge had no discernable trend in 1972–1999 [ Woo and Thorne , ], an increasing trend in the mean air temperature was identified in station data in 1948–2007 [ Turner and Gyakum , ], especially over the Mackenzie watershed in western Canada. Even assuming no temperature increase in Mackenzie River waters, the warm discharge can still effectively melt sea ice because Arctic sea ice, especially in the Beaufort Sea, has shifted to a new regime dominated by seasonal sea ice that is younger, thinner, and weaker [ National Academies , ].…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Mackenzie River discharge and bathymetry on sea ice in the Beaufort Sea

Nghiem

Hall

Rigor

et al. 2014

Geophysical Research Letters

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Mackenzie River discharge and bathymetry effects on sea ice in the Beaufort Sea are examined in 2012 when Arctic sea ice extent hit a record low. Satellite-derived sea surface temperature revealed warmer waters closer to river mouths. By 5 July 2012, Mackenzie warm waters occupied most of an open water area about 316,000 km 2 . Surface temperature in a common open water area increased by 6.5°C between 14 June and 5 July 2012, before and after the river waters broke through a recurrent landfast ice barrier formed over the shallow seafloor offshore the Mackenzie Delta. In 2012, melting by warm river waters was especially effective when the strong Beaufort Gyre fragmented sea ice into unconsolidated floes. The Mackenzie and other large rivers can transport an enormous amount of heat across immense continental watersheds into the Arctic Ocean, constituting a stark contrast to the Antarctic that has no such rivers to affect sea ice.

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“…For the purpose of having a consistent timeframe across all stations, we have analysed here only the period 1951-2005. The dataset we have used excluded stations that became operational after 1950 (Turner and Gyakum 2010), and we have also decreased the total number of stations to 142 (figure 1) because of missing data or due to the lack of outdoor skating rinks in areas with mild climates such as southwest British Columbia. For the analysis presented here, we have used daily maximum temperatures to estimate the meteorological conditions suitable for outdoor rinks.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent winter warming

Damyanov

Matthews

Mysak

2012

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Global warming has the potential to negatively affect one of Canada's primary sources of winter recreation: hockey and ice skating on outdoor rinks. Observed changes in winter temperatures in Canada suggest changes in the meteorological conditions required to support the creation and maintenance of outdoor skating rinks; while there have been observed increases in the ice-free period of several natural water bodies, there has been no study of potential trends in the duration of the season supporting the construction of outdoor skating rinks. Here we show that the outdoor skating season (OSS) in Canada has significantly shortened in many regions of the country as a result of changing climate conditions. We first established a meteorological criterion for the beginning, and a proxy for the length of the OSS. We extracted this information from daily maximum temperature observations from 1951 to 2005, and tested it for significant changes over time due to global warming as well as due to changes in patterns of large-scale natural climate variability. We found that many locations have seen a statistically significant decrease in the OSS length, particularly in Southwest and Central Canada. This suggests that future global warming has the potential to significantly compromise the viability of outdoor skating in Canada.

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Trends in Canadian surface temperature variability in the context of climate change

Cited by 16 publications

References 50 publications

The Development of Arctic Air Masses in Northwest Canada and Their Behavior in a Warming Climate

The Development of Arctic Air Masses in Northwest Canada and Their Behavior in a Warming Climate

Effects of Mackenzie River discharge and bathymetry on sea ice in the Beaufort Sea

Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent winter warming

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