Trends and Sources of Crime Guns in California: 2010–2021

Abstract

Firearm-related interpersonal violence is a leading cause of death and injury in cities across the United States, and understanding the movement of firearms from on-the-books sales to criminal end-user is critical to the formulation of gun violence prevention policy. In this study, we assemble a unique dataset that combines records for over 380,000 crime guns recovered by law enforcement in California (2010–2021), and more than 126,000 guns reported stolen, linked to in-state legal handgun transactions (1996–2021), to describe local and statewide crime gun trends and investigate several potentially important sources of guns to criminals, including privately manufactured firearms (PMFs), theft, and “dirty” dealers. We document a dramatic increase over the decade in firearms recovered shortly after purchase (7% were recovered within a year in 2010, up to 33% in 2021). This corresponds with a substantial rise in handgun purchasing over the decade, suggesting some fraction of newly and legally acquired firearms are likely diverted from the legal market for criminal use. We document the rapid growth of PMFs over the past 2–3 years and find theft plays some, though possibly diminishing, role as a crime gun source. Finally, we find evidence that some retailers contribute disproportionately to the supply of crime guns, though there appear to be fewer problematic dealers now than there were a decade ago. Overall, our study points to temporal shifts in the dynamics of criminal firearms commerce as well as significant city variation in the channels by which criminals acquire crime guns.

The Connection Between Legal and Illegal Firearms Markets: How the Change in Gun Control Policy in Brazil Intensified This Link

“…To investigate whether there was an increase in the circulation of these firearms in the illegal market, firearm seizure data was analyzed, a technique widely used in the literature on the subject (Braga & Pierce 2005;Collins et al 2018;Cook et al 2009;Laqueur et al 2023). For this, data from the Sou da Paz Institute obtained from the governments of the states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro was used to produce a report on the increase in seizures of more potentcaliber firearms in these locations.…”