Trends and Prospects of Change in Wheat Self-Sufficiency in Egypt

Abstract

Egypt is the largest wheat importer in the world; however, it produces only half of the 20 million tons of wheat that it consumes annually. The population of Egypt is currently growing by 1.94% per year, and projections predict that the demand for wheat will be nearly doubled by 2050. Russia and Ukraine are major wheat exporters to Egypt and globally, shipping grains from ports in the Black Sea. The ongoing conflict aggravates the already precarious food security situation in Egypt and many other import-dependent countries in Africa and Asia by disrupting supplies and accelerating food price hikes. Wheat is a strategic commodity in Egypt. Its production is a question of political stability. Against this backdrop, the Egyptian government declared gaining wheat self-sufficiency as a strategic aim. This study provides an overview of the degree and trends of cultivated wheat area, yield, production, and wheat self-sufficiency in Egypt between 2000 and 2020, followed by a qualitative analysis determining external pressures and system-immanent drivers that had an impact on wheat self-sufficiency in the past two decades in view of predicting future pathways to achieve wheat self-sufficiency in a sustainable way. The study underlines some critical external pressures such as agricultural policies, (subsidized) production inputs, climate conditions, global wheat supply chains, and system-immanent drivers such as domestic wheat supply prices and yields influencing the area of wheat cultivation and its productivity. There is a significant need to implement more effective and long-term sustainable agricultural policies in order to make wheat production in Egypt (more) attractive and feasible for smallholders again.

The Contribution of Agronomic Management to Sustainably Intensify Egypt’s Wheat Production

“…This means that smallholders receive a monthly net income of only USD 29 from cultivating one feddan of wheat. Such low economic attractiveness of wheat production has been highlighted by local purchasing prices being strongly correlated with the cultivated area of wheat in Egypt [6].…”

“…Egypt consumes the equivalent of 20 million metric tons (t) of wheat per year, and less than half of this amount is met from domestic production, the remaining share being covered by imports. In 2021, Russia and Ukraine contributed 85% of the total wheat imports to Egypt (60-66% from Russia and 20-25% from Ukraine) [6]. Wheat prices in Egypt increased by 100% between June 2021 and April 2022 [6], with the largest increases occurring at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022 and contributing to the national inflation record high of 20% in March 2022 [7].…”

“…In 2021, Russia and Ukraine contributed 85% of the total wheat imports to Egypt (60-66% from Russia and 20-25% from Ukraine) [6]. Wheat prices in Egypt increased by 100% between June 2021 and April 2022 [6], with the largest increases occurring at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022 and contributing to the national inflation record high of 20% in March 2022 [7]. With recently soaring wheat prices on international markets, the annual cost for wheat imports into Egypt is expected to further increase in 2023, thus creating a significant burden on the Egyptian economy.…”

“…Agriculture system-immanent responses of small-scale wheat producers included devoting larger shares of the wheat harvest to home consumption and for feeding animals instead of selling it to the government for filling the storage silos. Additionally, the low productivity of domestically produced wheat incentivizes farmers to reduce the area cultivated with wheat and to substitute wheat in the crop portfolio with other, more economically competitive crops, such as clover and broad beans [6].…”

The Potency of Separated and New Premix Formulations of Carfentrazone- Based Herbicide Against Annual Broadleaved Weeds in Wheat

“…in Egypt and the current human consumption, which is compensated through importation, is still (Abdelmageed et al, 2019). In 2020, Egypt is the world's biggest importer of wheat as it imported about 12.89 million tons ($3.2 billion) of wheat (Abdalla et al, 2023). Weeds are among the most serious wheat pests and the main obstacles in the production of wheat grain worldwide, including in Egypt (Singh et al, 2011;Mohamed, 2017).…”