Trends and impacts of temperature and fire regimes in South Africa’s coastal national parks: implications for tourism

Abstract

Climate change poses significant risks on coastal national park-based tourism through its effect on accessibility, comfort levels, and spatiotemporal changes of attractions. Wildfires and extreme temperatures have become issues of concern. Due to the widespread occurrence of fires in national parks along coastal areas and the noticeable changes in temperature regimes, more needs to be done to deepen understanding of their trends and impacts and devise appropriate management regimes. This study analyses the trends and impacts of fires and temperature-related variables in six coastal South African national parks, namely Agulhas, Garden Route, West Coast, Table Mountain, Namaqua, and Addo Elephant National Park. The triangulation and convergence model of the mixed-methods research design was adopted as the inquiry strategy. Data on statistical weather variables from the South African Weather Services and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration were used to calculate temperature trends using Mann–Kendall trend tests and homogeneity analysis. Data collection included questionnaire surveys, key informant interviews, field observations, and document analysis. The study observed statistically significant (p < 0.05) changes in temperature-related variables in all coastal national parks. There is also an increase in the intensity and spatial spread of fires, resulting in increased fire damage over time. Despite the current efforts of the coastal parks to manage wildfires and the changing climatic patterns, the fire and temperature regimes are threatening the biophysical environment with resultant effects on tourism and the economic viability of the national parks. The need to reengineer the fire suppression mechanisms and temperature-resilient tourism facilities has been observed.