Trends and Forecast Parameters of Grain Production, Consumption and Export Development in Russia

Abstract

The article examines the current state of the grain market at the level of federal districts and in the Russian Federation as a whole, it is noted that, despite severe weather conditions, the gross harvest of 2020 became the second largest in the history of Russia. The leaders in grain production in 2020 were the Central, Volga and Southern, in terms of the area of crops – the Volga, Southern, Siberian and Central Federal districts. The yield of grain and leguminous crops for the analyzed period 1990–2020 increased by 46.7% and averaged 28.6 c/ha in the country. The analysis of the Federal Scientific and Technical Program for the development of Agriculture for 2017–2025 and its subprograms, the Long-term strategy for the development of the grain complex of the Russian Federation until 2035, an assessment of the new indicator «provision of seeds of the main agricultural crops of domestic selection», presented in the Doctrine of Food Security 2020, is given. It is noted that in the world grain market over the past 30 years, Russia’s export potential has grown 24.3 times and reached 48.7 million tons, which corresponds to the third place in the world in grain exports (12% of the market volume) and the first place in wheat exports (20% of the market volume). Quantitative and qualitative characteristics of grain imports, investments for the development of both the grain industry and processing, and market infrastructure, including grain storage and warehousing systems, are given. Grain balance, export dynamics, including for individual grain crops, changes in export sales prices are considered. The main directions of development and improvement of the grain market for the future are presented: attracting investments in the grain industry; increasing the production of grain complex products and improving their quality by increasing the acreage by introducing unused land into circulation; increasing domestic grain consumption for feed purposes due to the development of the livestock industry and industrial grain processing; improving infrastructure and logistics of the grain industry; improving the scientific and technical base of the grain industry; improvement of measures of state regulation of grain production; increase of domestic grain consumption and development of export potential.