Chronic disease epidemics have been described as tsunamis for the forceful way that societal and behavioral instigators carry disease and morbidity in a single direction before receding, only after decades of counter efforts by clinical medicine and public health (1). Type 2 diabetes is considered a classic chronic disease, as long-term cultural and behavioral changes have interacted with diverse susceptible genes to increase prevalence and extensive morbidity in the U.S. and the rest of world (2,3). While chronic disease epidemics can indeed be vast, multifaceted, and difficult to reverse, they can also be dynamic and full of paradoxes and contradictory trends that vary based on the specific population of concern, the time horizon, and the health metrics under consideration. The type 2 diabetes epidemic in the U.S. has encountered numerous phases and transitions in recent decades, including periods of rapid growth in prevalence and incidence, a peak and decline in the incidence of complications, the alarming growth among youth, and, most recently, a peak and apparent decrease in incidence of diagnosed cases in some populations. The most defining characteristics of the recent era of the global diabetes epidemic have been the success in reducing the rate of complications among adults with diagnosed diabetes in high-income countries, the large increases in overall prevalence, and the explosion of prevalence in lower-and middle-income countries (4). However, there are many currents under the surface, variations in the trends, and emerging concerns that are changing the character of the diabetes epidemic in ways that will affect the direction of public health efforts. This synthesis reviews the recent major trends and transitions in the diabetes epidemic in the U.S., describes their impact on the character of diabetes complications, and discusses the challenges and implications for prevention and epidemiology.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS AND SOURCES