Trends and characteristics of warm and dry extreme compound event in Southeastern Europe

Abstract

<p>Extreme compound events defined as the simultaneous occurrence of multiple natural hazards such as floods, droughts, and heatwaves, have become increasingly frequent in South East Europe in recent years. These events can have significant impacts on the region's social, economic, and environmental systems and can lead to significant human losses. Because South East is identified as a climate hot spot for future climate change and occurrence of extreme compound events, it is very important to identify and study these hot spots. This information could be useful for decision-makers and practitioners in the water management and agriculture sector, especially in the Balkan region. Here we present the first results of the study of the compound warm and dry over the Western Balkan area since compound events have not been studied over the territory of Eastern Europe since 1950 until today. Using daily data on maximum temperature and precipitation, we calculated the frequency and trends of the warm/dry (WD) indices. Trends were calculated using the Mann-Kendall trend test in R and the resolution that was used is ERA5 1950-now. Presented results are annual and also seasonal variations. The index that we used shows cold and dry events per year or season, the results indicate the rising trend over the whole territory of South East Europe, where trends were statistically significant by over 95 percent. We investigated years with recorded heat waves and the most severe droughts in the observed region in the years: 2007, 2012, 2015, and 2017. In 2007 there were more than 140 warm and dry events in the Western Balkans area, in 2012 there were between 160 and 200 warm and dry events, in 2015 more than 140 and in 2017 around 140 warm and dry events. </p> <p>Studying extreme compound events is very important because it helps us to better understand the underlying causes of extreme weather and other natural disasters, especially in this area of high agricultural potential. This knowledge can help farmers to make informed decisions about how to identify potential risks and develop strategies to mitigate them to maximize their yields and minimize losses.</p> <p>Our results highlight the need for targeted and effective risk management strategies to reduce the negative impacts of extreme compound events in South East Europe.</p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p><strong>KEY WORDS</strong></p> <p>Compound events, temperature, precipitation, Eastern Europe, trends</p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p>Funding: This research was supported by the EXtremeClimTwin project, which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No952384.</p>