Trend-seasonal components identification at the stage of time series pre-forecasting analysis

Abstract

This article contains the economic processes trend-seasonality identification and its analysis. The object of research is the water delivery market - HOD (Home & Office Delivery). The subject of the study is the drinking mineral water sales time series (TS) in the Krasnodar Territory in 19-liter PET bottles. The authors applied the Chetverikov’s iterative filtering method to the time series, implemented in the MS Excel environment. As the work result a step-by-step illustration of the filtering application to time series is presented, deviations are estimated, trend and the wave intensity coefficient are given. The practical significance of the study is that the characteristics obtained are the basis for subsequent effective forecasting.