Trend and Correlation Analysis of k-Day Extreme Precipitationover Belgium

Gellens, D.

doi:10.1007/s007040070037

Cited by 23 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…For winter, the results are drastically different: about 2/3 of the stations are nonstationary at the 5% level. Similar results have been obtained by Gellens (2000), except that the number of series displaying a trend in winter was smaller (about 1/3). This probably reflects the fact that the series are longer (by about 10 years) and the change present in the middle of the 80th can therefore be detected with more confidence.…”

Section: The Climatological Networksupporting

confidence: 87%

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Spatial dependences among precipitation maxima over Belgium

Vannitsem

Naveau

2007

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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Abstract.For a wide range of applications in hydrology, the probability distribution of precipitation maxima represents a fundamental quantity to build dykes, propose flood planning policies, or more generally, to mitigate the impact of precipitation extremes. Classical Extreme Value Theory (EVT) has been applied in this context by usually assuming that precipitation maxima can be considered as Independent and Identically Distributed (IID) events, which approximately follow a Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) at each recording site. In practice, weather stations records can not be considered as independent in space.Assessing the spatial dependences among precipitation maxima provided by two Belgium measurement networks is the main goal of this work. The pairwise dependences are estimated by a variogram of order one, also called madogram, that is specially tailored to be in compliance with spatial EVT and to capture EVT bivariate structures. Our analysis of Belgium precipitation maxima indicates that the degree of dependence varies greatly according to three factors: the distance between two stations, the season (summer or winter) and the precipitation accumulation duration (hourly, daily, monthly, etc.). Increasing the duration (from one hour to 20 days) strengthens the spatial dependence. The full independence is reached after about 50 km (100 km) for summer (winter) for a duration of one hour, while for long durations only after a few hundred kilometers. In addition this dependence is always larger in winter than in summer whatever is the duration. An explanation of these properties in terms of the dynamical processes dominating during the two seasons is advanced.

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Section: The Climatological Networksupporting

confidence: 87%

“…Sneyers, 1975;Demarée, 1988, 1989;Sneyers et al, 1989;Gellens, 2000) and modelling (e.g. Schmitt et al, 1998).…”

Section: The Climatological Information Gathered From the Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial dependences among precipitation maxima over Belgium

Vannitsem

Naveau

2007

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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“…The time series of the BUL and CLIM networks have been tested for homogeneity by Van de Vyver (2012) and a selection of useful stations has been made. Gellens (2000) and Vannitsem and Naveau (2007) found that the vast majority of the CLIM and BUL time series are stationary for summer rainfall. However, the existence of a multi-decadal oscillation in rainfall extremes has been found in the Uccle time series (Ntegeka and Willems, 2008;Willems, 2013).…”

Section: Comparison Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are numerous studies of RFA for rainfall extremes based on rain gauge datasets. The index flood approach, which considers that only the location parameter varies in the region, is very popular (Gellens, 2000;Sveinsson et al, 2001;Rulfova et al, 2014). Uboldi et al (2014) used a bootstrap technique to randomly select data from neighbouring locations with a probability depending on the distance and altitude difference with the target location.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Belgium based on radar estimates

Goudenhoofdt

Delobbe

Willems

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In Belgium, only rain gauge time series have been used so far to study extreme rainfall at a given location. In this paper, the potential of a 12-year quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) from a single weather radar is evaluated. For the period 2005-2016, 1 and 24 h rainfall extremes from automatic rain gauges and collocated radar estimates are compared. The peak intensities are fitted to the exponential distribution using regression in Q-Q plots with a threshold rank which minimises the mean squared error. A basic radar product used as reference exhibits unrealistic high extremes and is not suitable for extreme value analysis. For 24 h rainfall extremes, which occur partly in winter, the radar-based QPE needs a bias correction. A few missing events are caused by the wind drift associated with convective cells and strong radar signal attenuation. Differences between radar and gauge rainfall values are caused by spatial and temporal sampling, gauge underestimations and radar errors. Nonetheless the fit to the QPE data is within the confidence interval of the gauge fit, which remains large due to the short study period. A regional frequency analysis for 1 h duration is performed at the locations of four gauges with 1965-2008 records using the spatially independent QPE data in a circle of 20 km. The confidence interval of the radar fit, which is small due to the sample size, contains the gauge fit for the two closest stations from the radar. In Brussels, the radar extremes are significantly higher than the gauge rainfall extremes, but similar to those observed by an automatic gauge during the same period. The extreme statistics exhibit slight variations related to topography. The radar-based extreme value analysis can be extended to other durations.

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“…In another study that related to 150 meteorological stations in the Changjiang catchment (Yangtze River) in China during 1960-2000 reported downward trends for annual ET 0 and pan evaporation. They concluded that the trends are mainly caused by a significant decrease in the net total radiation and to a lesser extent by a significant decline in the wind speed over the catchment.…”

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confidence: 99%

Trend Analysis in Reference Evapotranspiration Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Tests in Arid Regions of Iran

Shadmani

Marofi

Roknian

2011

Water Resour Manage

334

144

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In this research, temporal trends of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) values were investigated in arid regions of Iran. For this purpose, meteorological observations collected from 11 high quality meteorological sites over a 41-year period (1965-2005) were used and statistically significant ET0 trends in the monthly, seasonal and annual time basis were detected using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman's Rho (SR) tests at the 5% significant level. To eliminate the effect of serial correlation on the test results, the Trend Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) approach was applied. The results of this study indicated that the ET0 trends for some cities were increasing (positive) however, for some sites, they showed decreasing (negative) trends. The most number of significant ET0 trends on a monthly time scale occurred at Birjand but no significant trend was observed at the Bandarabbas, Sabzevar and Semnan sites. On the annual time scale, Mashhad revealed the highest positive trend (7.5 mm per year). On the other hand, Esfahan showed the highest decreasing (negative) ET0 trend of about −6.38 mm per year. In general, the performances and abilities of the MK and SR tests were consistent at the verified significant level.

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Trend and Correlation Analysis of k-Day Extreme Precipitationover Belgium

Cited by 23 publications

References 14 publications

Spatial dependences among precipitation maxima over Belgium

Spatial dependences among precipitation maxima over Belgium

Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Belgium based on radar estimates

Trend Analysis in Reference Evapotranspiration Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Tests in Arid Regions of Iran

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