Trend and change point analyses of annual precipitation in the Souss-Massa Region in Morocco during 1932–2010

Abahous, Houria; Ronchail, Josyane; Sifeddine, Abdelfettah; Kenny, Lahcen; Bouchaou, Lhoussaine

doi:10.1007/s00704-017-2325-0

Cited by 36 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…In addition, the occurrence of outliers is describing an annual cycle. These results support previous results for data set with the lowest number of stations (Abahous et al ., 2018).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monthly precipitations over semi‐arid basins in Northern Africa: Homogenization and trends

Abahous

Guijarro

Sifeddine

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Long‐term and high quality observed climate data are required to analyse with reduced uncertainty temporal and spatial climate variability. The aim of this work is the quality control, the reconstruction and homogenization of monthly precipitation observed in semi‐arid basins within Souss‐Massa region in North Africa during the period 1933–2010. Data recorded in local meteorological stations underwent a neighbour‐based homogenization algorithm. We apply Mann‐Kendall test and Sen's method to raw and homogenized time series to calculate trends and their magnitude. The greatest variation in data properties is highlighted for the trend analysis where the homogenization process allows the detection of a higher number of the statistically significant negative trend with 95 and 99% confidence levels.

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“…In addition, the occurrence of outliers is describing an annual cycle. These results support previous results for data set with the lowest number of stations (Abahous et al ., 2018).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monthly precipitations over semi‐arid basins in Northern Africa: Homogenization and trends

Abahous

Guijarro

Sifeddine

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…From a climatic point of view, it is well known that monthly amounts provide valuable information regarding the precipitation of a given territory. Traditionally, the focus has been placed on means and the extreme rainfall of concrete regions around the world at global (Berghuijs et al, ) and regional scales: the Mediterranean (Caloiero et al, ; Lazoglou et al, ; Zittis, ), the rest of Europe (Panagos et al, ; Beranová and Kyselý, ; Brown, ), Africa (Abahous et al, ; Gummadi et al, ), Asia (Jiang et al, ; Kim et al, ; Ullah et al, ; Zhao et al, ), and America (Bernardino et al, ; Ciemer et al, ; Valdés‐Pineda et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial distribution and trends of different precipitation variability indices based on daily data in Northern Chile between 1966 and 2015

Meseguer-Ruiz

Ponce-Philimon

Guijarro

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Northern Chile is one of the most arid regions in the world, as it includes the Atacama Desert. At high elevations, most precipitation is observed only during a short period of the year, from December until March. This renders water availability a major concern for policymakers. Accumulated rainfall varies considerably from one year to another, and for this reason, climate projections have a very low degree of confidence in this area. Consequently, in this region, it is more interesting to study the irregularity of precipitation itself than accumulated rainfall values, as they express in a clearer way the behaviour of precipitation. According to daily data from 161 meteorological stations, four irregularity indices of precipitation were calculated: concentration index, entropy, persistence index, and fractal dimension. These indices were measured according to observed values, and their spatial distribution was subsequently determined by interpolating following multivariate regression models that consider different geographical variables such as latitude, distance to the Amazon Basin, elevation, orientation, and curvature. The temporal trends of each index and for each meteorological station were also calculated, displaying different results depending on the latitude and elevation. These changes agree with the observed modifications on the inter‐tropical atmospheric circulation and with changes in the precipitation diurnal cycle. These results will help improve climate projections for this region, in the process facilitating the development of more accurate climate models and informing the formulation of water management policies.

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“…Finally, the southern and southeastern parts of the region are dominated by Saharan climate. The precipitations varies considerably in space and time with a rainfall average of 200 mm/year [12]. The region is surrounded by three rivers, the Souss, Massa and Drâa Wadis, giving the region the informal name "Souss-Massa-Drâa Region".…”

Section: Global Changes and Groundwater At Regional Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate observations made over the past decades indicate that the regions previously classified as humid or sub-humid have regressed to semi-arid and arid [10,12,13,[60][61][62][63][64][65]. The climate projections in Morocco predict an increase in average summer temperatures of 2 to 4 • C and a 20% decline in average rainfall by the end of the century [23,63,[66][67][68][69][70].…”

Section: Climate Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Moroccan Groundwater Resources and Evolution with Global Climate Changes

et al. 2020

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In semi-arid areas, many ecosystems and activities depend essentially on water availability. In Morocco, the increase of water demands combined to climate change induced decrease of precipitation put a lot of pressure on groundwater. This paper reports the results of updating and evaluation of groundwater datasets with regards to climate scenarios and institutional choices. The continuous imbalance between groundwater extraction and recharge caused a dramatic decline in groundwater levels (20 to 65 m in the past 30 years). Additionally, Morocco suffers from the degradation in groundwater quality due to seawater intrusion, nitrate pollution and natural salinity changes. Climate data analysis and scenarios predict that temperatures will increase by 2 to 4 °C and precipitation will decrease by 53% in all catchments over this century. Consequently, surface water availability will drastically decrease, which will lead to more extensive use of groundwater. Without appropriate measures, this situation will jeopardize water security in Morocco. In this paper, we zoom on the case the Souss-Massa basin, where management plans (artificial recharge, seawater desalination, and wastewater reuse) have been adopted to restore groundwater imbalance or, at least, mitigate the recorded deficits. These plans may save water for future generations and sustain crop production.

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Trend and change point analyses of annual precipitation in the Souss-Massa Region in Morocco during 1932–2010

Cited by 36 publications

References 14 publications

Monthly precipitations over semi‐arid basins in Northern Africa: Homogenization and trends

Monthly precipitations over semi‐arid basins in Northern Africa: Homogenization and trends

Spatial distribution and trends of different precipitation variability indices based on daily data in Northern Chile between 1966 and 2015

Moroccan Groundwater Resources and Evolution with Global Climate Changes

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