Trend analysis of wave direction and associated impacts on the Catalan coast

J. Geophys. Res. Oceans

2013

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[1] Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrapbased method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of H s up to 610% were obtained, whereas they were around 620% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of H s are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/ attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the H s magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

J. Geophys. Res. Oceans

2013

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“…This issue was previously analysed for few Catalan ports by Casas-Prat and Sierra (2010Sierra ( , 2012 who raised awareness by showing a tendency of harbour agitation to increase. However, their results were based on trend analysis, which is a simple and non-computational technique that can be used to provide a preliminary assessment only because it does not consider explicitly the greenhouse scenarios and because it assumes that the obtained tendency is valid into the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts on wave-driven harbour agitation due to climate change in Catalan ports

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

Virgili

et al. 2015

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Abstract. The objective of the present work is to analyse how changes in wave patterns due to the effect of climate change can affect harbour agitation (oscillations within the port due to wind waves). The study focuses on 13 harbours located on the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean) using a methodology with general applicability. To obtain the patterns of agitation, a Boussinesq-type model is used, which is forced at the boundaries by present/future offshore wave conditions extracted from recently developed high-resolution wave projections in the NW Mediterranean. These wave projections were obtained with the SWAN model forced by present/future surface wind fields projected, respectively, by five different combinations of global and regional circulation models (GCMs and RCMs) for the A1B scenario. The results show a general slight reduction in the annual average agitation for most of the ports, except for the northernmost and southernmost areas of the region, where a slight increase is obtained. A seasonal analysis reveals that the tendency to decrease is accentuated in winter. However, the inter-model variability is large for both the winter and the annual analysis. Conversely, a general increase with a larger agreement among models is found during summer, which is the period with greater activity in most of the studied ports (marinas). A qualitative assessment of the factors of variability seems to indicate that the choice of GCM tends to affect the spatial pattern, whereas the choice of RCM induces a more homogeneous bias over the regional domain.

“…Coelho et al 2009;Zacharioudaki and Reeve 2011;Casas-Prat and Sierra 2012) and harbor operability Sierra 2010, 2012).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of potential impacts on coastal areas due to changes in wave conditions

2014

Climatic Change

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This study examines the main physical processes related to coastal and port engineering that could be altered by future changes in wave parameters as a consequence of climate change. To estimate the order of magnitude of the potential changes in these processes, several assumptions and simplifications are made and, in most cases, they are assessed by using simple, empirical state-of-the-art expressions. The studied processes are grouped in three categories according to whether they affect beaches, harbors or coastal structures in general. The changes in these processes are estimated as a function of the deepwater variations of the main wave parameters: wave height (H 0 ), wave period (T) and wave direction (θ 0 ). A moderate range of variation is assumed for these parameters at deep water (±10 or ±20 % in H 0 and its square root in T, and ±10º in θ 0 ), taking into account recent studies of future wave projections. The results indicate that potential changes in wave height will strongly affect overtopping discharge, stability and scouring of rubble-mound structures and, to a lesser extent, siltation, wave transmission and longshore sediment transport. Changes in wave direction will affect longshore sediment transport in particular and, at a lower magnitude, processes related to port operability (agitation and siltation). Siltation is the only process affected significantly by changes in T alone.