Trend analysis of mortality rates and causes of death in children under 5 years old in Beijing, China from 1992 to 2015 and forecast of mortality into the future: an entire population-based epidemiological study

Cao, Han; Wang, Jing; Li, Yichen; Li, Dongyang; Guo, Jin; Hu, Yanyan; Meng, Kai; He, Dian; Liu, Bin; Liu, Zheng; Han, Qin

doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2017-015941

Cited by 30 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Our finding established that neonatal death accounted for nearly half of the under-five deaths, which was in agreement with a 22 years trend analysis done in China, reports from WHO, and global systematic analysis [3,30,31]. In addition, similar to Demographic Health Survey (DHS) studies from Uganda and Ethiopia, our report also showed that more than two-third of the under-five deaths occurred during their infantile period [4,5,32].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

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Magnitude, trend, and causes of under-five mortality from Kilite-Awlaelo health demographic surveillance database, northern Ethiopia, 2009–2017

et al. 2020

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Background Globally, neonatal and child mortality remains still high. Under-five mortality accounts for four-fifth of child and young adolescent deaths. In Ethiopia, though there has been a remarkable progress over the past years, under-five mortality is still high. Evidence from population-based longitudinal studies on under-five mortality is limited. Thus, this study aims to investigate the magnitude, trend, and causes of under-five mortality in the Kilite-Awlaelo Health Demographic Surveillance System, Northern Ethiopia. Methods Kilite-Awlaelo health and demographic surveillance system was established in 2009 in the northern part of Ethiopia. Population-based longitudinal study design was carried out through extracting data for nine consecutive years (2009–2017). After smoothing the data revealed a visually decreasing trend. Linear, quadratic, exponential, and autoregressive time-series models were checked. Accordingly, the exponential trend model provided the best fit with the lowest standard error of estimate, lowest sum square error and highest adjusted R2 value. Cause-specific mortality was determined by cross tabulating cause of death with specific age death. Results The overall under-five mortality rate was 35.62 per 1000 livebirths. The under-five mortality rate of rural and urban residents was 37.58 and 12.99 deaths per 1000 livebirths respectively. The exponential trend model showed the under-five mortality rate was declining exponentially. Bacterial sepsis 67(20.6%), prematurity 37(11.08%), intestinal infection disease 30(8.98%), acute lower respiratory infections 26(7.78%), and birth asphyxia 24(7.19%) were the major causes of under-five mortality. Conclusion The overall under-five mortality rate for the surveillance period was comparatively lower. A statistically significant difference in under-five mortality rate was observed between urban and rural residents. A statistically significant declining trend in the under-five mortality rate was observed. Bacterial sepsis, prematurity, intestinal infection disease, acute lower respiratory infections, and birth asphyxia were the major causes of under-five mortality. We recommend the huge discrepancy in under-five mortality rate between urban and rural dwellers could be narrowed to some level by increasing healthcare access for rural residents.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…In a couple of population-based epidemiological studies done in China, premature birth and birth asphyxia were among the top five leading causes of under-five mortality [28,31]. Our study also identified premature birth and birth asphyxia to be the top causes of under-five mortality.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 58%

Magnitude, trend, and causes of under-five mortality from Kilite-Awlaelo health demographic surveillance database, northern Ethiopia, 2009–2017

et al. 2020

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“…Prevention interventions targeting specific age groups are required since the distribution of causes of death varied across age groups [16]. We found that the maternal and perinatal diseases accounted for the largest proportion of infant deaths, followed by congenital diseases.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…More attention should be paid to the primary and secondary prevention measures, including antenatal corticosteroids and kangaroo mother care, for preterm birth complications, a major part of maternal and perinatal diseases [17]. In addition, pregnancy at an appropriate age and the prenatal diagnosis are suggested to reduce the occurrence of congenital heart disease [16,18,19]. Our study indicated that the main causes of death for children aged 1-4 years were non-communicable diseases, while a national analysis reported injuries were the leading causes at this age group in China [4].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite a continued reduction in children mortality, asphyxia-related mortality showed an overall upward trend throughout the study period. The key focus of preventative measures should be through training of the guardians on the prevention of food obstruction and bed suffocation to reduce the infant deaths of accidental asphyxia [16,21,22]. The death rates from neurological cause among children aged 5-14 years also increased during the study period, especially in females [6] and cardiovascular diseases have been on the rise in recent years.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends and seasonality in cause-specific mortality among children under 15 years in Guangzhou, China, 2008-2018

Dong

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: This study analyzed the trends and seasonality in mortality among children aged 0-14 years in Guangzhou, China during 2008. Understanding the epidemiology of this public health problem can guide policy development for children mortality prevention. Methods:A population-based epidemiological retrospective study was conducted. 7,265 individual data of children mortality were obtained from the Guangzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. The Poisson regression was used to quantify the annual average reduction rate and the difference in mortality rate between gender and age groups. Incidence ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to determine the ratio of the observed number of deaths to the expected deaths (i.e. the average assuming no variations) by month, season, school term, weeks and holidays deaths.Results: Between 2008 and 2018, the children mortality rate in Guangzhou decreased from 54.0 to 34.3 per 100,000 children, with an annual reduction rate of 4.6% (95%CI:1.1%-8.1%), especially the under-5 mortality rate decreased by 8.3% (95%CI: 4.8%-11.6%) per year. The decline trend varied by causes of death, even with an upward trend for the mortality of asphyxia and neurological diseases. The risk of death among male children was 1.78 times (95%CI: 1.61-1.98) that of females. The distribution of causes of death differed by age groups. Maternal and perinatal, congenital and pneumonia were the top three causes of death in infants and cancer 3 accounted for 17% of deaths in children aged 1-14 years. Moreover, the injury-related mortality showed significant temporal variations with higher risk during the weekend. And there was a summer peak for drowning and a winter peak for asphyxia. Conclusions: Guangzhou has made considerable progress in reducing mortality over the last decade. The findings of characteristics of children mortality would provide important information for the development and implementation of integrated interventions targeted specific age groups and causes of death. mortality unchanged among the children aged 10-14 years. There children mortality rate was higher among males and those under five years. Significant temporal variations were observed for injury-related mortality from drowning, transport accidents and asphyxia. The upward trend of mortality due to asphyxia, neurological and cardiovascular diseases strengthens the importance of monitoring and management for specific causes of death. The findings provide important information for the development and implementation of interventions targeting specific causes, seasons and age groups to reduce children mortality.

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Application of the Model with a Non-Gaussian Linear Scalar Filters to Determine Life Expectancy, Taking into Account the Cause of Death

Śliwka

2019

Lecture Notes in Computer Science

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Trend analysis of mortality rates and causes of death in children under 5 years old in Beijing, China from 1992 to 2015 and forecast of mortality into the future: an entire population-based epidemiological study

Cited by 30 publications

References 16 publications

Magnitude, trend, and causes of under-five mortality from Kilite-Awlaelo health demographic surveillance database, northern Ethiopia, 2009–2017

Magnitude, trend, and causes of under-five mortality from Kilite-Awlaelo health demographic surveillance database, northern Ethiopia, 2009–2017

Trends and seasonality in cause-specific mortality among children under 15 years in Guangzhou, China, 2008-2018

Application of the Model with a Non-Gaussian Linear Scalar Filters to Determine Life Expectancy, Taking into Account the Cause of Death

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