Trend Analysis of exponential increase of Covid-19 cases in Pakistan (Preprint)

Abstract

BACKGROUND The 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) originated in the central Chinese city, Wuhan by end of December 2019.Pakistan reported its first 2 confirmed cases,on26th February 2020 linked to travel history of Iran. OBJECTIVE The study was conducted to see the trend of covid infection growth and doubling time in Pakistan from an early containment state to much belated exponential rise pattern . METHODS This study is based on analysis of the publicly available data on COVID-19 from Ministry of National Health Services Regulations and Coordination covid-19 dashboard and National Institute Health Islamabad(NIH) situation reports from 26th Feb to 30th March2020. RESULTS A total of 1875 COVID-19 patients has been reported with 25 deaths,11 critically ill and 58 recoveries. Punjab has highest number of confirmed cases (593)Sindh(508),Khyber Pakhtun Khawa (195) Baluchistan(144)Gilgit Baltistan(128),Islamabad Capital territory (51) Azad Jammu Kashmir (6). Majority of effected patients are male(64%).Iran Zairian are making 49% of positive patents Local transmission cases stands at 29%.Daily cases surge is 12.3% increase per day. 30th March 2020 witnessing highest reported cases so far (240 new Cases). Pakistan reached its first 100 confirmed cases on 16th March,2020,20 days after first reported case. The case doubling time was 3 days initially after first cases then it was reported as three days and then five days till 30th March 2020 CONCLUSIONS Grave mishandling, lack of quarantine facility and limited testing capacity at Taftan border crossing resulted in importation of virus in country.Cumulative confirmed case count in Pakistan is still in sub-exponential growth pattern. Stringent risk mitigation measures by provinces and Federal being implemented have resulted in slow rate of infection growth with reduced infection doubling rate in days. Pakistan with limited testing capacity of 2000-3000 tests per day needs Extremely comprehensive testing regime is required to halt the community transmission leading to exponential increase in cases.

Prevalence and Associated Risk Factor of COVID-19 and Impacts of Meteorological and Social Variables on Its Propagation in Punjab, Pakistan

“…caused internal transmission, especially in the major cities of Pakistan as the majority of the foreign people returned to their homes (Wilder Smith and Freedman 2020). The first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Pakistan was reported in Karachi (Sindh) and Islamabad on 26th February, 2020 (Noreen et al 2020a , b ). According to the National Institute of Health (NIH), Pakistan's latest COVID-19 update (available on https://covid.gov.pk/stats/pakistan ) on 10th March, 2021, the data from all provinces and territories reported a total of 583,916 confirmed cases, 13,013 deaths, 554,255 recovered, 9,246,827 total tests, and 1628 critical cases.…”

“…Among 24,104 confirmed cases, 439 deaths with 126 critical cases and 6507 recoveries were reported, whereas the fertility and recovery rate remained 1.8% and 27%, respectively. The community transmission is reported to be 91% (Noreen et al 2020a , b ). Punjab’s high prevalence and fertility rate can be attributed to a mixture of asymptomatic transmission and its initial untraced spread.…”

“…Moreover, a weaker immune system is highly prone to be affected by COVID-19, which makes the older demographic much more susceptible and more likely to be hospitalized due to COVID-19 related complications (CDC 2020). However, several studies from Pakistan depicted that the highest number of individuals which are affected by COVID-19 belong to the 20–29 and 30–39 age groups, while the lowest are in the above 80 (Abid et al 2020 ; Noreen et al 2020a , b ; PIDE 2020; Ladiwala et al 2021 etc.). These data seem paradoxical given that the elderly are more susceptible to the virus owing to a weakened immune system and poor health (Clark et al 2020 ), but this disparity can be explained by looking closely at Pakistan’s demographic and social structure.…”

Compliance and Etiquettes of Using Face Masks in Public during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Community-Based Survey from Islamabad, Pakistan

“…Physical distancing and other hygiene measures were difficult to implement in our social structure. The crisis was further compounded by a high nationwide positivity ratio with insufficient capacity to enforce supplementary measures including contact tracing, country-wide testing and isolation of suspected/confirmed cases (6,7). Face masks thus seemed to be an effective strategy for controlling the current COVID-19 pandemic for a resource-limited country such as Pakistan.…”

“…roads, rails and flights (9). Despite warnings issued by such institutions as well as the government, public response was indifferent and the country witnessed a second deadly spell of COVID-19 in October (7,10).…”