Trend Analysis and Change Point Detection of Mean Air Temperature: A Spatio-Temporal Perspective of North-Eastern India

Chakraborty, Debasish; Saha, Saurav; Singh, Rahul; Sethy, B. K.; Kumar, Arvind; Saikia, U. S.; Das, Shaon Kumar; Makdoh, Badapmain; Borah, T. R.; Chanu, A Nomita; Walling, Imtisenla; ANAL, None P.S. ROLLING; Chowdhury, Samik; Daschaudhuri, Dhiman

doi:10.1007/s40710-017-0263-6

Cited by 19 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Trend indicates a gradual change occurring over a certain time period (Shahin et al, 1993). The seasonal analysis over the last 30 years indicate that, decadal increase in mean winter temperature was at the rate of 0.8°C over NE region (Chakraborty et al, 2017a). There was a significant increase in minimum, mean and maximum temperature of ~0.64°C, 1.09°C and 1.5°C, respectively, per 100 years during post-monsoon months and ~0.61°C, 0.92°C and 1.2°C per 100 years during winter season (Deka et al, 2009).…”

Section: Trends In Climatic Variablesmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…For that change point analysis was carried out and the results indicate that most changes over the region started during 1990s to early 2000s as depicted in Fig. 1 (Chakraborty et al, 2017a). Over the North-east region there is high spatial variability in rainfall anomaly and most importantly there is existence of the difference in the pattern of trends of NE regional rainfall vis-à-vis national level (Saha et al, 2018).…”

Section: O N L I N E C O P Ymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The annual rainfall in Kamrup District of Assam for 117 years showed no significant trend till 2000 but after places it increased and some places it decreased (Chakraborty et al, 2014(Chakraborty et al, , 2017aDeka et al, 2009). Over some places, reverse trend in the maximum (T ) and minimum (T ) temperatures max min increased the diurnal temperature range (DTR = T -T ) max min (Jhajharia and Singh, 2011).…”

Section: O N L I N E C O P Ymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Recent trends and impacts of climate change in North-Eastern region of India-A review

Roy¹,

Kolady²,

Paudel³

et al. 2021

JEB

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The economy of North-Eastern (NE) region of India predominantly depends on farming, where only 12% of geographical area is available for cultivation out of which more than 85% is rain fed. Climate change has become a major concern in agriculture today, as farmers in many regions are struggling to cope with changing temperatures and rainfall pattern. Moreover, extreme weather situations like droughts, floods, heat and cold waves pose serious threat to food security, especially for small and marginal farmers. This review paper discusses the climate change in North-Eastern India based on the available climatic data from various published sources. Most of the analysis was performed on time series meteorological data recorded at different locations across the states of North-Eastern India namely, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. The increase in mean annual maximum temperature varied from 0.1°C per decade in Imphal (Manipur) to about 1.4°C per decade in Jharnapani (Nagaland). The changes were significant for all the states, except Sikkim. This region is one of the highest rainfall receiving regions of the world, but during February-March it faces water scarcity. The rainfall is projected to increase in 57 districts out of 78 districts, with some districts expected to experience almost 25% more rainfall than usual. The North-Eastern region of India has experienced notable changes in the pattern of major climatic variables such as rainfall and temperature. Average temperatures are projected to increase in almost all the districts of the region while annual rainfall is also reported to increase in almost 3/4th of the districts. The climate-induced natural disasters like drought, flood and hailstorms are the major threats of climate change and the incidence of these natural disasters are increasing in the recent years over the region.

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Section: Trends In Climatic Variablesmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: O N L I N E C O P Ymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: O N L I N E C O P Ymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Recent trends and impacts of climate change in North-Eastern region of India-A review

Roy¹,

Kolady²,

Paudel³

et al. 2021

JEB

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Significant fluctuations in the mean are a common existence in time series data due to inhomogeneity. The Pettitt's test (Pettitt, 1979) is a non-parametric test that does not make any assumptions about data distribution and is commonly employed in continuous data hydrological or climatic series to detect any significant change in the data series (Chakraborty et al, 2017;Ilori and Ajayi, 2020;Kocsis et al, 2020;Liu et al, 2012). It compares the null hypothesis (H0) where the T variables follow one or more distributions with the same location parameter is compared to the alternative hypothesis (Ha), which depicts the existence of a change point.…”

Section: Homogeneity Test Using Pettitt's Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of non-parametric trend and climatic parameter homogeneity tests in a data-scarce region: a spatio-temporal perspective in the Tawang River basin, Eastern Himalayas

Devi

Mahanta

Barua

2022

Theor Appl Climatol

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This study is aimed at studying long-term historical and future trends for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 on approximately 30-year timescale at annual and seasonal for precipitation and at annual, seasonal, monthly, and diurnal temperature range (DTR) for temperature maximum (T_max), temperature minimum (T_min) variations using statistical trend analysis techniques-Mann-Kendall test (MK) and Sen's slope estimator (S) and the homogeneity test using Pettitt's test. The study is carried out in three spatial points across the Tawang Chu in the district of Tawang, Arunachal Pradesh. The summer mean precipitation for RCP 4.5 shows a positive trend with a rise in precipitation between 1.56 mm to 9.94 mm in all the study points. The mean annual precipitation statistics for all the points show an increase of RCP 4.5 in 2006-2052 and 2053-2099 timescale. Both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios exhibit a uniform rise in T_min and T_max during investigation. For all the points, the results likewise reveal a rising trend in mean annual T_min and T_max. Still, the inter-decadal temperature statistical analysis shows that the increase in mean annual T_min is greater than the increase in T_max, indicating a decreasing trend in DTR. It is anticipated that this study's outcomes will contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between change in climate and the regional hydrological behaviour and will be benefitting the society to develop a regional strategy for water resource management, can serve as a resource for climate impact research scope-assessments, adaptation, mitigation, and disaster management strategies for India's north-eastern region.

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“…Whether the trend in a time series is statistically significant or not that can be determined using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Mann-Kendall (Mann 1945;Kendall 1975) test is a widely used non-parametric test to detect the trend in hydrometeorological time series (Subash and Sikka 2014;Oza and Kishtawal 2014;Yao and Chen 2015;Chakraborty et al 2017;Bhuyan et al 2018). It does not require that the data be normally or linearly distributed and also no autocorrelation is required.…”

Section: Rclimdexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Extreme Climate Indices in Cherrapunji for the period 1979 to 2020

Kalita

Saxena

2021

Preprint

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We have used Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator method to find out significant changes in extreme climate indices for daily temperature as well as precipitation over the period 1979 to 2020 in Cherrapunji. In the present study, a total of 24 precipitation and temperature based extreme climate indices were calculated using RClimDex v 1.9-3. Among 24 indices, 7 were derived from number of days above nn mm rainfall (Rnn) according to Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) convention and the rest were in accordance with the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). It was observed that, among all the indices, consecutive dry days (CDD), summer days (SU25) and very light rainfall (VLR) days increased significantly with 0.54, 1.58 and 0.14 days/year respectively, while only consecutive wet days (CWD) decreased significantly with 0.36 days/year. A slight negative trend was also observed in case of tropical nights (TR20) and among the other precipitation indices as well. Again, the indices associated with daily maximum temperature increased significantly with annual change of 0.06 to 0.07 ⁰C/year. And for indices associated with daily minimum temperature, almost no change or a slight negative change was observed, except a significant positive trend in February and significant negative trend in November for TNN only. The analysis reveals that some of the extreme climate indices which explains the climatic conditions of Cherrapunji has changed a lot over the period of 42 years and if this trend continues then Cherrapunji will be under threat when it comes to climate change.

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Trend Analysis and Change Point Detection of Mean Air Temperature: A Spatio-Temporal Perspective of North-Eastern India

Cited by 19 publications

References 39 publications

Recent trends and impacts of climate change in North-Eastern region of India-A review

Recent trends and impacts of climate change in North-Eastern region of India-A review

Analysis of non-parametric trend and climatic parameter homogeneity tests in a data-scarce region: a spatio-temporal perspective in the Tawang River basin, Eastern Himalayas

Trends in Extreme Climate Indices in Cherrapunji for the period 1979 to 2020

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