Tree-Ring Stable Carbon Isotope-Based Mean Maximum Temperature Reconstruction in Northwest China and Its Connection with Atmospheric Circulations

Abstract

The inter-annual stable carbon isotope ratio (δ13C) of three tree-ring cores of P. euphratica (Populus euphratica Oliv.) was determined from Ejina Oasis in Northwest China. A robust and representative δ13C chronology is generated from the three δ13C series using an arithmetic mean method. After eliminating the influence of the δ13C from elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, we obtained a carbon isotopic discrimination (Δ13C) chronology. According to the significant correlation between the tree-ring Δ13C and instrumental data, we reconstructed the mean maximum temperature anomalies from previous December to current September (TDS) for the period 1901–2011. The reconstruction explained 43.6% of the variance over the calibration period. Three high-temperature periods (1929–1965, 1972–1974, and 1992–2006) and three low-temperature periods (1906–1926, 1966–1968, and 1975–1991) were found in the reconstructed series. Comparisons between the reconstructed TDS and the observed mean temperature from previous December to current September in Anxi meteorological station and the temperature index in north-central China demonstrated the reconstructed TDS has the advantage of reliability and stability. The significant spatial correlation declared that the reconstruction has a broad spatial representation and can represent the temperature variation characteristics in a wide geographical area. In addition, we found that the area of Ejina Oasis is smaller (larger) when the mean maximum temperature is higher (lower), which may be due to a conjunction effect of natural and anthropogenic activities. Significant periodicities and correlations suggested that the TDS variations in Ejina Oasis were regulated by solar radiation and atmospheric circulations at the interannual and interdecadal time scales.