Tree-ring indicators of winter-spring temperature in Central China over the past 200 years

Zeng, A’ying; Zhou, Feifei; Li, Wei; Bai, Yang; Zeng, Chen

doi:10.1016/j.dendro.2019.125634

Cited by 12 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…These findings match the conclusions drawn from climate reconstruction efforts using tree rings [72][73][74]. It merits particular attention that some paleoclimate findings in the Northern Hemisphere show temperature discrepancies, which are attributed to issues related to tree-ring dispersion [75]. However, the reconstructions in this study retain temperature sensitivity, and the increase in the reconstructed temperatures align with the warming trends observed in the instrumental data.…”

Section: Temporal Representativeness and Reconstruction Reliabilitysupporting

confidence: 84%

Anomalous Warm Temperatures Recorded Using Tree Rings in the Headwater of the Jinsha River during the Little Ice Age

Jiang,

Xu,

Tong

et al. 2024

Forests

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As a feature of global warming, climate change has been a severe issue in the 21st century. A more comprehensive reconstruction is necessary in the climate assessment process, considering the heterogeneity of climate change scenarios across various meteorological elements and seasons. To better comprehend the change in minimum temperature in winter in the Jinsha River Basin (China), we built a standard tree-ring chronology from Picea likiangensis var. balfouri and reconstructed the regional mean minimum temperature of the winter half-years from 1606 to 2016. This reconstruction provides a comprehensive overview of the changes in winter temperature over multiple centuries. During the last 411 years, the regional climate has undergone seven warm periods and six cold periods. The reconstructed temperature sensitively captures the climate warming that emerged at the end of the 20th century. Surprisingly, during 1650–1750, the lowest winter temperature within the research area was about 0.44 °C higher than that in the 20th century, which differs significantly from the concept of the “cooler” Little Ice Age during this period. This result is validated by the temperature results reconstructed from other tree-ring data from nearby areas, confirming the credibility of the reconstruction. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method (EEMD) was adopted to decompose the reconstructed sequence into oscillations of different frequency domains. The decomposition results indicate that the temperature variations in this region exhibit significant periodic changes with quasi-3a, quasi-7a, 15.5-16.8a, 29.4-32.9a, and quasi-82a cycles. Factors like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and solar activity, along with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), may be important driving forces. To reconstruct this climate, this study integrates the results of three machine learning algorithms and traditional linear regression methods. This novel reconstruction method can provide valuable insights for related research endeavors. Furthermore, other global climate change scenarios can be explored through additional proxy reconstructions.

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Section: Temporal Representativeness and Reconstruction Reliabilitysupporting

confidence: 84%

Anomalous Warm Temperatures Recorded Using Tree Rings in the Headwater of the Jinsha River during the Little Ice Age

Jiang,

Xu,

Tong

et al. 2024

Forests

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“…CC BY 4.0 License. Previous studies have also confirmed that the AMO can strongly influence China's climate (Li et al, 2015;Wang et al, 2013), with impacts on temperature and drought in the southwest (Fang et al, 2019;Shi et al, 2017;Zeng et al, 2019), northwest (Chen et al, 2013), and northeast (Liu et al, 2019;Zhu et al, 2018b;Zhu et al, 2020a). The SST anomalies in the North Atlantic or AMO can change oceanic-atmospheric-land surface interactions and directly affect the local climate in eastern Asia (Wang et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2009).…”

Section: Linkages To the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillationmentioning

confidence: 83%

Overcoming model instability in tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions using a multi-species method: A case study from the Changbai Mountains, northeastern China

Zhu

Cooper

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. The unstable sensitivity of growth-climate relationships greatly restricts tree-ring-based paleoclimate reconstructions, especially in areas with frequent divergence problems, such as the temperate zone in northeast China. Here, we propose an original tree-species mixing method to overcome this obstacle and improve the stability and reliability of reconstruction models. We take the tree-ring based growing-season minimum temperature reconstruction for the northern Changbai Mountains in northeast China as an example to illustrate the method. Compared with previous temperature reconstruction models, our reconstruction model is more stable and reliable and explains up to 68 % of the variance. It is also highly consistent with historical records and tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions from the nearby Xiaoxing'an Mountains and from across the Northern Hemisphere. Our reconstruction uses two different tree species and is more accurate than temperature reconstructions developed from a single species. Over the past 259 years (AD 1757–2015), five significant cold periods and five warm periods were identified. The reconstruction indicates rapid warming since the 1980s, which is consistent with other instrumental and reconstructed records. We also found the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation plays a crucial role in driving the growing-season minimum temperature in the northern Changbai Mountains.

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“…These correlations reveal a potential linkage between the AMO and the temperature in the northern Changbai Mountains. Similar significant (p<0.01) and positive correlations exist between the temperature reconstruction for the northern Changbai Mountains and the actual (annual: R=0.378, decadal: R=0.7) (Enfield et al, 2001) and reconstructed (Gray: annual: R=0.285,decadal: R=0.494;Mann: decadal: R=0.643) (Mann et al, 2009;Gray, 2004 Previous studies have also confirmed that the AMO can strongly influence China's climate (Li et al, 2015;Wang et al, 2013), with impacts on temperature and drought in the southwest (Fang et al, 2019;Shi et al, 2017;Zeng et al, 2019), northwest (Chen et al, 2013), and northeast (Liu et al, 2019;Zhu et al, 2018b;Zhu et al, 2020a). The SST anomalies in the North Atlantic or AMO can change oceanic-atmospheric-land surface interactions and directly affect the local climate in eastern Asia (Wang et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2009).…”

Section: Linkages To the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillationmentioning

confidence: 87%

Comment on cp-2021-2

2021

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The unstable sensitivity of growth-climate relationships greatly restricts tree-ring-based paleoclimate reconstructions, especially in areas with frequent "divergence" problems, such as the temperate zone in northeast China. Here, we propose an original tree-species mixing method to overcome this obstacle and improve the stability and reliability of reconstruction models. We take the tree-ring based growing-season minimum temperature reconstruction for the northern Changbai Mountains in northeast China as an example to illustrate the method. Compared with previous temperature reconstruction models, our reconstruction model is more stable and reliable and explains up to 68% of the variance. It is also highly consistent with historical records and tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions from the nearby Xiaoxing'an Mountains and from across the Northern Hemisphere. Our reconstruction uses two different tree species and is more accurate than temperature reconstructions developed from a single species. Over the past 259 years (AD 1757(AD -2015, five significant cold periods and five warm periods were identified. The reconstruction indicates rapid warming since the 1980s, which is consistent with other instrumental and reconstructed records. We also found the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation plays a crucial role in driving the growing-season minimum temperature in the northern Changbai Mountains.climates (Fritts, 1976;Zhu et al., 2020a). However, the lack of long-term instrumental climate data severely limits our ability to understand past climates; for this reason, long climate proxy records are urgently needed.Tree rings, especially ring widths, are a critically important paleoclimate proxy (Fritts, 1976) and are widely used for reconstructing climate at a high resolution over hundreds to thousands of years (Anchukaitis et al., 2017;Wilson et al., 2016). Such records are invaluable for placing recent climatic changes in a long-term context, which can help considerably with planning appropriate responses to future climate changes and extreme events. However, the statistical calibration and verification of tree-ring based reconstructions is a rigorous process (Fritts, 1976) that requires a relatively stable growth-climate relationship over time.Over the last several decades, many studies have addressed the "divergence problem", an anomalous reduction in tree-ring indices and temperature sensitivity after rapid warming (D'Arrigo et al., 2008). Other studies have found an increased correlation between tree-ring indices and temperature after rapid warming, such as in the case of Fraxinus mandshurica (FM) (Cao et al., 2018) and Larix gmelinii (Zhang et al., 2016) in northeastern China. These two types of "unstable sensitivity" in growth-climate relationships challenge the assumption of "uniformity principle" in dendroclimatology (Fritts, 1976), and thus brings more uncertainties in treering-based inferences on past climate.The Changbai Mountains are the highest in eastern Eurasia, covering nearly 2,000 square kilomet...

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Tree-ring indicators of winter-spring temperature in Central China over the past 200 years

Cited by 12 publications

References 42 publications

Anomalous Warm Temperatures Recorded Using Tree Rings in the Headwater of the Jinsha River during the Little Ice Age

Anomalous Warm Temperatures Recorded Using Tree Rings in the Headwater of the Jinsha River during the Little Ice Age

Overcoming model instability in tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions using a multi-species method: A case study from the Changbai Mountains, northeastern China

Comment on cp-2021-2

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