Tree-ring based reconstruction of winter drought since 1767 CE from Uttarkashi, Western Himalaya

Shekhar, Mayank; Pal, Amita; Bhattacharyya, Amitava; Ranhotra, Parminder Singh; Roy, Ipsita

doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2017.08.029

Cited by 21 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Building on this in Shekhar et al (2018), they argued that WD variability was a probable driver of seasonal winter droughts over the western Himalaya. Both a recent speleothem study focused on the central Himalaya (Kotlia et al, 2017) and a recent tree-ring study focused on the western Himalaya (Chinthala et al, 2023) agreed that the increased WD frequency associated with the LIA ended around 1820 CE.…”

Section: Late Holocene (4 Ka -Present)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Western disturbances and climate variability: a review of recent developments

Hunt,

Baudouin,

Turner

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. Western disturbances (WDs) are synoptic-scale weather systems embedded within the subtropical westerly jet. Manifesting as upper-level troughs often associated with a lower-tropospheric low over Western India, they share some dynamical features with extratropical cyclones. WDs are most common during the boreal winter (December to March), during which they bring the majority of precipitation – both rain and snow – to the Western Himalaya, as well as to surrounding areas of north India, Pakistan and the Tibetan Plateau. WDs are also associated with weather hazards such as heavy snowfall, hailstorms, fog, cloudbursts, avalanches, frost, and coldwaves. In this paper, we review the recent understanding and development on WDs. Recent studies have collectively made use of novel data, novel analysis techniques, and the increasing availability of high-resolution weather and climate models. This review is separated into six main sections – structure and thermodynamics, precipitation and impacts, teleconnections, modelling experiments, forecasting at a range of scales, and paleoclimate and climate change – each motivated with a brief discussion of the accomplishments and limitations of previous research. A number of step changes in understanding are synthesised. Use of new modelling frameworks and tracking algorithms has significantly improved knowledge of WD structure and variability, and a more frequentist approach can now be taken. Improved observation systems have helped quantification of water security over the Western Himalaya. Convection-permitting models have improved our understanding of how WDs interact with the Himalayas to trigger natural hazards. Improvements in paleoclimate and future climate modelling experiments have helped to explain how WDs and their impacts over the Himalaya respond to large-scale natural and anthropogenic forcings. We end by summarising unresolved questions and outlining key future WD research topics.

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Section: Late Holocene (4 Ka -Present)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Western disturbances and climate variability: a review of recent developments

Hunt,

Baudouin,

Turner

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…For example, Yang et al [20] found that the radial growth of Turkish Juniperus communis trees during February-April was signi cantly correlated with the monthly mean standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in the northwestern region of Tajikistan, and reconstructed the average SPEI sequences during the aforementioned months for the years 1895-2016. Shekhar et al [21] reconstructed the SPEI index of Himalayan longleaf pine for the winter season 1767-2013 in Uttarkashi, India. Similarly, Yadava et al [22] reconstructed the 244-year SPEI of Cedrus deodara, Roxb for February-May in the western Indian Himalaya region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Radial growth response of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica to drought at different elevations in northern Daxing'anling and reconstruction of the SPEI sequence

zhang,

Wang,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Preprint

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In order to study the historical wet and dry changes in the northern Daxing'anling region of China, this paper established a standard chronology of tree-ring width at high (1150 m), medium (800–900 m), and low (700 m) elevations. The analysis was based on tree-ring cores of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica from three elevation gradients in the northern Daxing'anling and correlates it with the SPEI (Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) of 12-month time scale. The established widths were correlated with the SPEI at a 12-month time scale. Climate-growth correlation analysis revealed that the low elevation chronology exhibited the highest correlation with the SPEI index in July–August (r = 0.665, p < 0.01). Based on this, a linear regression model between the low elevation tree-ring width chronology and the July–August SPEI index was established via regression analysis to reconstruct the dry and wet changes in the study area in the past 210 years. The explained variance (R2) of the reconstructed equation was 44.3%, (the explained variance after adjusting for degrees of freedom was 43.3%), and the F-value was 45.295.The reconstruction satisfied required statistical calibration and validation tests. The inter-annual variations indicate that the study area experienced six wet periods (1809–1818, 1828–1837, 1848–1864, 1928–1948, 1950–1972 and 1996–2003) and six dry periods (1819–1827, 1838–1847, 1865–1904, 1906–1923, 1973–1988 and 2004–2018), with an equal share of wet and dry years (13.8% and 14.8%). The reconstruction results are confirmed by the historical data and the reconstruction results of the surrounding region of the study area. Wavelet analysis reveals oscillatory cycles of 18, 26–29, and 40 years in the reconstructed sequence, which may be related to the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Multi-Year Intergenerational Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

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“…To enhance knowledge of the dynamics and causes of monsoon variability in Southeast Asia, several proxies, such as tree rings, ice cores, and speleothems, have been investigated to extend climatic records (Singhvi and Kale, 2010). Tree ring width is a commonly used proxy in the Himalayan regions to reconstruct precipitation and temperature (Bhattacharyya and Yadav, 1999;Singh et al, 2006;Yadav et al, 2011;Shekhar, 2014;Shekhar et al, 2022), relative humidity (Dhyani et al, 2021b), and droughts (Cook et al, 2010;Yadav et al, 2017;Shekhar et al, 2018;Dhyani et al, 2022a). In addition, a gridded spatial reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) throughout Asia included building the Himalayan drought history (Cook et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree rings of Rhododendron arboreum portray signal of monsoon precipitation in the Himalayan region

Dhyani¹,

Bhattacharyya²,

Joshi³

et al. 2023

Front. For. Glob. Change

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The Himalayas has a significant impact not just on the Indian subcontinent’s monsoon patterns but also on the global climate. Monsoon failure causing drought has become more common in recent years. As a result, it poses a major threat to ecosystem sustainability. We reported for the first time, a climatic-sensitive tree ring chronology of a broadleaf tree, Rhododendron arboreum, spanning 1732–2017 CE from the Himalayan region. We discovered that the climate during the monsoon season limits the growth of this tree in this region. The correlation analysis between tree ring chronology and climate revealed a significant positive relationship with precipitation (r = 0.63, p < 0.001) and a negative relationship with temperature (r = −0.48, p < 0.01) during the months of June–August (JJA). This strong relationship allowed us to reconstruct monsoon precipitation spanning 1780 to 2017 CE which explained 40% of the variance of the observed climate data for the calibration period. The reconstructed data are validated by the existence of a significant association with the gridded JJA precipitation data of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of this region. The monsoon rainfall record captured extremely wet years during 1793, 1950, 2011, 2013, and 2017 and extremely dry years during 1812, 1833, 1996, 2002, 2004, and 2005. The extremely dry and wet years well coincided with major catastrophic historical and instrumental droughts and floods in the region. Furthermore, the reconstructed data are also validated by the significant positive correlation (r = 0.36, p < 0.001, n = 163) with the all Indian summer monsoon rainfall series. Such data will be useful to predict the incidence of future droughts, which can help to assess the vulnerability of the forest ecosystem to extreme events.

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Tree-ring based reconstruction of winter drought since 1767 CE from Uttarkashi, Western Himalaya

Cited by 21 publications

References 51 publications

Western disturbances and climate variability: a review of recent developments

Western disturbances and climate variability: a review of recent developments

Radial growth response of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica to drought at different elevations in northern Daxing'anling and reconstruction of the SPEI sequence

Tree rings of Rhododendron arboreum portray signal of monsoon precipitation in the Himalayan region

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