Tree mortality in response to climate change induced drought across Beijing, China

Zhang, Xiongqing; Lei, Yinru; Pang, Yong; Liu, Xianzhao; Wang, Jinzeng

doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1089-0

Cited by 39 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Further, warmer temperatures in the absence of significant drought have been shown to increase tree growth rates, particularly in deciduous species (Way and Oren 2010). Overall, the direct mortality consequences of warming could be relatively small and limited when considered globally, as earth system feedbacks (e.g., greater atmospheric moisture and precipitation) combined with multiple treelevel compensatory processes can buffer future Xiong et al 2011, Kharuk et al 2013, Zhang et al 2014b, Zhou et al 2013, 2014bAustralasia, Semple et al 2010; Europe,Čater 2015; North America, Vogelmann et al 2009, Zegler et al 2012, Baguskas et al 2014, Hart et al 2014, Kane et al 2014, Twidwell et al 2014, Gu et al 2015South America, Brienen et al 2015. v www.esajournals.org tree mortality relative to hotter droughts (e.g., Klein et al 2014a).…”

Section: Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die‐off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

2015

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Abstract. Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broadscale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures-''hotter drought'', an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene-are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortalityrelevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO 2 ] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases in forest growth and canopy greening; widespread increases in woody-plant biomass, density, and extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, and genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; and potential mitigation by forest management. In contrast, recent studies document more rapid mortality under hotter drought due to negative tree physiological responses and accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence suggesting greater vulnerability includes rising background mortality rates; projected increases in drought frequency, intensity, and duration; limitations of vegetation models such as inadequately represented mortality processes; warming feedbacks from die-off; and wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape the vulnerability debate but have not been discussed collectively. We also present a set of global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster in hotter drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter droughts occur more frequently than longer droughts and can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal drought nonlinearly; and (6) mortality happens rapidly relative to growth intervals needed for forest recovery. These high-confidence drivers, in concert with research supporting greater vulnerability perspectives, support an overall viewpoint of greater forest vulnerability globally. We surmise that mortality vulnerability is being discounted in part due to difficulties in predicting threshold responses to extreme climate events. Given the profound ecological and societal implications of underestimating global vulnerability to hotter drought, we highlight urgent challenges for research, management, and policy-making communities.

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Section: Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die‐off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

2015

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“…In this study, we found that maximum July temperature significantly raised tree mortality of the three species during 1997-2002, which included one of the warmest years (1998) in recent times in Southwest China (Wang and Gong 2000). Many previous studies also found that the rates of tree mortality increases with elevated temperature (Van Mantgem et al 2009;Williams et al 2010;RuizBenito et al 2013;Zhang et al 2014). Furthermore, increased summer temperatures or rapid climate warming have had a strong negative effect on tree growth (Dulamsuren et al 2013;Liu et al 2013), and thus have led to increased tree mortality in many regions (Williams et al 2010).…”

Section: Effects Of Climate Conditions On Tree Mortality Of Three Spementioning

confidence: 49%

“…Climate-driven tree mortality can be affected by both heat stress and increases in frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought Zhang et al 2014). The heatinduced stress and drought under climate change could further change the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions .…”

Section: Effects Of Climate Conditions On Tree Mortality Of Three Spementioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic information improves statistical individual-tree mortality models for three key species of Sichuan Province, China

Qiu

et al. 2015

Annals of Forest Science

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Abstract& Key message Climate variables improve individual-tree mortality models for fir, oak and birch. & Context Climate is considered as an important driver of tree mortality, but few studies have included climate factors in models to explore their importance for modelling individualtree mortality.& Aims To measure the performance of climate-based models, we built individual-tree mortality models using individual, stand, and climate variables for fir (Abies faxoniana Rehd. et Wils.), oak (Quercus aquifolioides Rehd. et Wils.), and birch (Betula albo-sinensis Burk.) in Southwest China, and explored the corresponding effects on tree death. & Methods We developed tree mortality models based on 287 permanent plots from the Sichuan Forest Inventory data, and compared the models based on variables of individual (I), stand (S), and climate (C) levels, and different combinations (I+S, I+C, S+C, I+S+C) among these groups to improve model performance. We employed relative Akaike information criterion (AIC), area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and Hosmer-Lemeshow's goodness-of-fit statistic for model evaluation and validation. & Results We found that tree mortalities of the three species could be better predicted (AUC>0.8) by carefully selecting variables at three ecological scales (individual, stand, and regional climate). Our results suggest that the higher mortality of the object trees occurs when they endure lower radial growth of the previous years, more intensive competition, and moderate canopy cover (for birch), while lower mortality was seen in an appropriate range of climate conditions and at higher stand canopy cover (for fir and oak). & Conclusion The results have significance for incorporating the effects of a changing climate into mortality models.

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“…The sensitivity of trees to climate change differs among species and ecozones (Zhang et al 2014;Lei et al 2016). Therefore, knowledge of species-and region-specific responses to climate is needed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In northeastern China, increases in the severity and frequency of fires due to climate change may prompt shifts from a larch-dominated forest to an increasingly birch-dominated landscape (Cai et al 2013). Water crises are expected to occur as a consequence of warmer temperatures and lower levels of precipitation in northern China (Zhang et al 2014), so may affect species pair of Prince Rupprecht's larch and white birch (B. platyphylla Sukaczev) in mountainous forests of northern China. In eastern subarctic Québec, Canada, warmer temperatures since the 1990s have triggered shrub expansion of tundra dwarf birch (B. glandulosa Michx.)…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative studies of the response of larch and birch seedlings from two origins to water deficit

Run-mei

Shi

Wang

2017

N.Z. j. of For. Sci.

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Background: Early developmental stages of plants are expected to be a major bottleneck to recruitment. Information on the response of seedling to anticipated water availability is urgently needed in regions where tree seedlings may experience more frequent water deficits. In this paper, we focused on the influence of water deficit on different species (larch vs. birch) and origins (xeric vs. mesic). Methods: Prince Rupprecht's larch (Larix gmelinii var. principis-rupprechtii (Mayr) Pilg.) and white birch (Betula platyphylla Sukaczev) from northern China were selected to represent the xeric origin. Eastern larch (Larix laricina (Du Roi) K. Koch) and paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marshall) from eastern Canada were selected to represent the mesic origin. For each species, half of seedlings were assigned to a well-watered treatment (WW, 75% water holding capacity (WHC) and the other half to a low-watered treatment (LW, 35% WHC). After 20 weeks of treatment, we collected data on morphological indexes of shoot height, root collar diameter, total leaf area and total root area; measured photosynthetic rate (A sat ), transpiration rate (E), photosynthetic water-use efficiency (WUE) and apparent chlorophyll concentration (Chl); harvested seedlings and measured biomass allocation of leaf, stem and root. Results: We found that reduced photosynthetic rate, transpiration rate and increased water-use efficiency were physiological responses of the four species to drought, and the responses varied among the species. All larch seedlings appeared no leaf shedding, survived through the drought treatment and showed a longer duration and high tolerance to drought. In low-watered conditions, survival rate, biomass, shoot height, root collar diameter, total leaf area, total root area and chlorophyll concentration of birch seedlings were significantly decreased. The response of seedlings to water deficits also differed according to the seed origins. Xeric origin of Prince Rupprecht's larch was more affected than mesic origin of eastern larch, mainly because Prince Rupprecht's larch originated in a narrower range of mountainous regions, resulting in lower adaptation of this species to water deficits, whereas eastern larch was distributed widely along coastal regions, contributing to higher phenotypic plasticity to variable soil conditions. Similarly, higher plasticity of paper birch may be responsible for its better performance in the low-watered treatment than white birch. Conclusions: Larch seedlings were less sensitive to water deficit than birch seedlings. Larch seedlings were characteristics of a conservative water-use strategy, whereas birch seedlings responded with a profligate water-use strategy. Plasticity or adaptation of seedlings outweighs the seed origins in determining their drought responses.

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Tree mortality in response to climate change induced drought across Beijing, China

Cited by 39 publications

References 49 publications

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die‐off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die‐off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

Climatic information improves statistical individual-tree mortality models for three key species of Sichuan Province, China

Comparative studies of the response of larch and birch seedlings from two origins to water deficit

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