Treaty Withdrawal and the Development of International Law

Abstract

I argue that treaty withdrawal has two opposing effects on the development of international law. First, it directly impacts the treaty where it occurs by pushing remaining members to adopt reforms to maintain cooperation. Second, it indirectly affects the development of other treaties by damaging diplomatic relations between the withdrawing state and other members, hindering negotiations in other areas of cooperation. The impact of withdrawal on legal development is consequentially mixed: while it expedites the reform of one treaty, it inhibits reform elsewhere. I test this argument by applying a difference-in-differences design to an original panel of treaties built from the records of the United Nations. My findings reveal that while withdrawal increases the number of reforms in treaties where it occurs, it decreases reforms in other similar treaties with comparable memberships. The indirect effect cancels out the direct effect; overall, treaty withdrawal contributes to the stagnation of international law.