Traveller Behavior: Decision-Making in an Unpredictable World

Abstract

This paper discusses the nature and consequences of uncertainty in transport systems. Drawing on work from a number of fields, it addresses travellers' abilities to predict variable phenomena, their perception of uncertainty, their attitude to risk and the various strategies they might adopt in response to uncertainty. It is argued that despite the increased interest in the representation of uncertainty in transport systems, most models treat uncertainty as a purely statistical issue and ignore the psychological aspects of response to uncertainty. The principle theories and models currently used to predict travellers' response to uncertainty are presented and number of alternative modelling approaches are outlined. It is argued that the current generation of predictive models do not provide an adequate basis for forecasting response to changes in the degree of uncertainty or for predicting the likely effect of providing additional information. A number of alternative modelling approaches are identified to deal with travellers' acquisition of information, the definition of their choice set and their choice between the available options. The use of heuristic approaches is recommended as an alternative to more conventional probabilistic methods. 1.

A Bibliometric Analysis of the Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Based on Science Mapping

“…To do that, techniques such as the driver's stress level detection [23], speed adaptation systems [24] and driver's behaviour control [25] were developed. This thematic area also covers topic such as the behaviour of drivers in traffic congestion [26].…”

Information impact on quality of multimodal travel choices: conceptualizations and empirical analyses

“…A main underlying justification for this large and growing interest, and for the huge investments needed for the development and deployment of such services, is the following line of argumentation: multimodal urban transport networks become more and more complex and unreliable, so that it becomes practically impossible for travelers to attain complete knowledge of all relevant factors influencing travel choice. This lack of knowledge predominantly exists along two dimensions (Bonsall 2004;Chorus et al 2006b): firstly, travelers may not know all available and feasible travel alternatives (in terms of mode-route combinations) that may bring them to their destination (e.g. Ramming 2002;Hoogendoorn-Lanser and Van Nes 2004).…”

The role of source preference and subjective probability in valuing expected travel time savings

“…This suggests a more serious rethink about the role of revealed preference data which, if properly constructed as in this paper, can produce the necessary variability in attribute levels to circumvent the possible need for a choice experiment. Bonsall (2004) argued that most travel behaviour studies have a rather simple treatment of uncertainty (i.e., as a purely statistical issue), and highlighted the importance of accommodating psychological aspects of response to uncertainty in travel behaviour research "since it is uncertainty in the mind of the traveller, rather than variability in the system, which directly influences behaviour, [and hence] we need to understand people's perception of [uncertainty] and attitudes to uncertainty if we are to predict their responses to it" (p.45). This paper echoes Bonsall's position, supporting further research on the influence of uncertainty in travel decision making from both behavioural and psychological perspectives.…”