Travel restrictions and variants of concern: global health laws need to reflect evidence

Meier, Benjamin Mason; Mesquita, Judith Bueno de; Burci, Gian Luca; Chirwa, Danwood Mzikenge; Dagron, Stéphanie; Eccleston-Turner, Mark; Forman, Lisa; Gostin, Lawrence O.; Habibi, Roojin; Negri, Stefania; Phelan, Alexandra; Sekalala, Sharifah; Taylor, Allyn L.; Villarreal, Pedro A.; Yamin, Alicia Ely; Hoffman, Steven J.

doi:10.2471/blt.21.287735

Cited by 15 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268823000456 Published online by Cambridge University Press importation, and therefore the risk of local transmission given importation is not quantified. Despite these limitations, our projection exercise highlights the propagating global risk of importation of mpox cases using airline transportation network.In conclusion, travel restrictions can impose strong economic and social impact, and thus careful evidence-based decision process is necessary[26]. While our simple model may not fully capture the complex dynamics of global disease transmission, our simulation showed that in the case of mpox, airline travel restrictions may not be the practical intervention to prevent importation in most areas.…”

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confidence: 89%

“…Practically travel restrictions have been put in place in several boarders during the COVID-19 pandemic, specifically when it was discovered in Wuhan, China and also when a new variant of concern has been identified (i.e. the Omicron variant in South Africa) [25][26][27]. A recent study estimated the undetected importation risk against the Omicron variant among low and middle income countries (LMICs) due to limited surveillance capabilities [28].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Impact of airline network on the global importation risk of mpox, 2022

Kinoshita

Sassa²,

Otake³

et al. 2023

Epidemiol. Infect.

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As of 4 September 2022, a total of 53996 mpox cases were confirmed globally. Cases are predominantly concentrated in Europe and the Americas, while other regions are also continuously observing imported cases. This study aimed to estimate the potential global risk of mpox importation and consider hypothetical scenarios of travel restrictions by varying passenger volumes via airline travel network. Passenger volume data for the airline network, and the time of first confirmed mpox case for a total of 1680 airports in 176 countries (and territories) were extracted from publicly available data sources. A survival analysis technique in which the hazard function was a function of effective distance was utilized to estimate the importation risk. The arrival time ranged from 9 to 48 days since the first case was identified in the UK on 6 May 2022. The estimated risk of importation showed that regardless of the geographic region, most locations will have an intensified importation risk by 31 December 2022. Travel restrictions scenarios had a minor impact on the global airline importation risk against mpox, highlighting the importance to enhance local capacities for the identification of mpox and to be prepared to carry out contact tracing and isolation.

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mentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of airline network on the global importation risk of mpox, 2022

Kinoshita

Sassa²,

Otake³

et al. 2023

Epidemiol. Infect.

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“…68 Global solidarity, cooperation around epidemiologically driven global public health measures, and an effective rules-based international system are required for achieving an effective and coordinated response to COVID-19 and future global health threats. 69 These nationalistic ideas also prime the public and test their tolerance for securitizing acts, including the use of border closures as potential responses to other ongoing and future challenges, such as climate and war refugees and migrants. 70…”

Section: Border Closures Have Legal Epidemiologic and Political Conse...mentioning

confidence: 99%

A virus unites the world while national border closures divide it: Epidemiologic, legal, and political analysis on border closures during COVID-19

Hoffman

Weldon

Habibi

2022

International Journal

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This article critically examines the use of national border closures at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic. After explaining why targeted border closures generally do not work and how they violated international law at the time, we examine the unprecedented case of total border closures. Positing that since the current instruments and institutions of global health governance did not anticipate this phenomenon, the legality of total border closures rests on less certain grounds. Then, after asking why nearly every government implemented some form of border closure in March 2020 if neither science nor law provided adequate motivation for their use, we conclude that in the face of a global health emergency, border closures represent an opportunity for political leaders to show determined action, redirect blame to other jurisdictions, and reinforce nationalism. We proceed to argue that both targeted and total border closures have profound legal, epidemiological, and political significance as performances that contradict global realities while undermining notions of global solidarity. Such political theatre means that citizens must weigh these consequences against any perceived benefits of border closures as they would any other politically driven government action, and contest and challenge them appropriately. Citizens must not unduly defer to scientists or lawyers on early COVID-19 border closures because these were primarily political—not scientific or legal—decisions. In this vein, we conclude with some guiding political considerations for scrutinizing government decisions to close borders and observations for the future of global health cooperation during infectious disease outbreaks.

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“…Traditional testing, contact tracing, isolation, and quarantine failed to significantly curb introduction and spread of SARS-CoV-2. Interventions such as border closings and travel restrictions were not consistent with World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations under the International Health Regulations . While evidence of the effects of travel restrictions is incomplete, the available data show that these restrictions are most effective if implemented early and combined with community mitigation strategies .…”

Section: Disease Control and Preventionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Interventions such as border closings and travel restrictions were not consistent with World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations under the International Health Regulations. 5 While evidence of the effects of travel restrictions is incomplete, the available data show that these restrictions are most effective if implemented early and combined with community mitigation strategies. 6 The NASEM committee recommended CDC conduct an external formal evaluation or modeling studies on the effectiveness of travel restrictions and active screening and monitoring of international travelers.…”

Section: Disease Control and Preventionmentioning

confidence: 99%