Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 1970–2005

Abstract

Hurricanes pose a continuing hazard to populations in coastal regions. This study estimates the impact of hurricanes on population change in the years 1970–2005 in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Geophysical models are used to construct a unique data set that simulates the spatial extent and intensity of wind damage and storm surge from the 32 hurricanes that struck the region in this period. Multivariate spatial time-series models are used to estimate the impacts of hurricanes on population change. Population growth is found to be reduced significantly for up to three successive years after counties experience wind damage, particularly at higher levels of damage. Storm surge is associated with reduced population growth in the year after the hurricane. Model extensions show that change in the white and young adult population is more immediately and strongly affected than is change for blacks and elderly residents. Negative effects on population are stronger in counties with lower poverty rates. The differentiated impact of hurricanes on different population groups is interpreted as segmented withdrawal—a form of segmented resilience in which advantaged population groups are more likely to move out of or avoid moving into harm’s way while socially vulnerable groups have fewer choices.

Explaining differential vulnerability to climate change: A social science review

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Keeping People in Place: Political Factors of (Im)mobility and Climate Change

“…It is thus essential to consider economic factors not only as preexisting vulnerability factors driving migration or immobility but also as they feedback into the web of causalities. Much of this scholarship, in and out of environmental contexts, also reference multiple forms of capital (human, social) required to move or that act as barriers to migration (Black and Collyer 2014;Chan 1995;Logan et al 2016).…”

Construction Method and Performance of Bugis Traditional House in Wind Disasters

“…Model extensions show that change in the white and young adult population is more immediately and strongly affected than changes for blacks and elderly residents. Negative effects on the population are stronger in counties with lower poverty rates [13] Improvement of wind disaster management in Latvian suggested doing by the interaction between business, society, and state. The costs in the elimination of wind disaster are associated with restoration of infrastructure, prevention of forest devastation, liquidation of damage in port, and restoration of power line operation [14].…”