Transport oil product consumption and GHG emission reduction potential in China: An electric vehicle-based scenario analysis

Abstract

China’s transport sector is facing enormous challenges from soaring energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Transport electrification has been viewed as a major solution to transportation decarbonization, and electric vehicles (EVs) have attracted considerable attention from policymakers. This paper analyzes the effects of the introduction of EVs in China. A system dynamics model is developed and applied to assess the energy-saving and emission-reducing impacts of the projected penetration of EVs until the year 2030. Five types of scenarios of various EV penetration rates, electricity generation mixes, and the speed of technological improvement are discussed. Results confirm that reductions in transport GHG emissions and gasoline and diesel consumption by 3.0%–16.2%, 4.4%–16.1%, and 15.8%–34.3%, respectively, will be achieved by 2030 under China’s projected EV penetration scenarios. Results also confirm that if EV penetration is accompanied by decarbonized electricity generation, that is, the use of 55% coal by 2030, then total transport GHG emissions will be further reduced by 0.8%–4.4%. Moreover, further reductions of GHG emissions of up to 5.6% could be achieved through technological improvement. The promotion of EVs could substantially affect the reduction of transport GHG emissions in China, despite the uncertainty of the influence intensity, which is dependent on the penetration rate of EVs, the decarbonization of the power sector, and the technological improvement efficiency of EVs and internal combustion engine vehicles.

Will Individual Actions Do the Trick? Comparing Climate Change Mitigation Through Geoengineering Versus Reduced Vehicle Emissions

“…Further, transitioning to electricity‐fueled miles is more practical for reducing transportation emissions than changes to other transportation sectors (Mazur et al., 2018). The switch to electric and hybrid vehicles is projected to continue, and analyses of the impacts of this switch in global markets abound (Colmenar‐Santos et al., 2019; Kahn Ribeiro et al., 2007; Mazur et al., 2018; Palencia et al., 2017; Saisirirat et al., 2013; van Mierlo & Maggetto, 2007; Zheng et al., 2019). There are certainly opportunities for individuals to make changes to other greenhouse gas emitting sectors, such as use of electricity (27% of emissions by sector, 2018), industry and manufacturing (22%), commercial and residential (12%), and agriculture (10%) via solutions such as reducing use of home and workplace electricity or selecting more renewable energy sources, reducing meat consumption, buying from more sustainably producing companies, etc.…”

Trade-Offs between Direct Emission Reduction and Intersectoral Additional Emissions: Evidence from the Electrification Transition in China’s Transport Sector

“…Besides, subsidy policies, − improvements of infrastructure, − and changes in human attitude and behavior , have been considered as individual measures to increase electrification rates and can interact with each other to achieve in-depth electrification eventually. Yet, the primary focus of the electrifying transport sector remains on the fossil energy reduction and mitigation effects, − which is consistent with its initial purpose to reduce direct CO 2 emissions through realizing the substitution of electricity for fossil fuels . It has inspired synergy effect studies on air pollution and critical materials as well, such as material availability, , air quality, , and health cobenefits. − …”

Distributed Generation from Renewable Energy Sources: Ending Energy Poverty across the World

“…The third outcome of the rapid industrial progress with new energy technology occurring in China since about a decade, is that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are starting to impact oil consumption at a significant level. We remind that about 50% of oil consumption in the world is related to transportation, and 40% by road transportation [12].…”