Transparent modeling of influenza incidence: Big data or a single data point from psychological theory?

Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos V.; Şimşek, Özgür; Buckmann, Marcus; Gigerenzer, Gerd

doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.12.006

Cited by 32 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…As complex models are not always feasible or preferable to build [145], there may be some interest in reducing complexity when modeling CKD in T2DM, e.g., if sufficient data on clinical outcomes are not available early in a trial or if the model is designed to facilitate communication with wider audiences. One approach adopted in the literature to reduce complexity is to focus on the CKD outcomes associated with the largest clinical-and economic-burden, usually ESKD [8].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Chronic Kidney Disease in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Literature Review of Models, Data Sources, and Derivation Cohorts

Pöhlmann¹,

Bergenheim

Sánchez

et al. 2022

Diabetes Ther

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Introduction: As novel therapies for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) become available, their long-term benefits should be evaluated using CKD progression models. Existing models offer different modeling approaches that could be reused, but it may be challenging for modelers to assess commonalities and differences between the many available models. Additionally, the data and underlying population characteristics informing model parameters may not always be evident. Therefore, this study reviewed and summarized existing modeling approaches and data sources for CKD in T2DM, as a reference for future model development.Methods: This systematic literature review included computer simulation models of CKD in T2DM populations. Searches were implemented in PubMed (including MEDLINE), Embase, and the Cochrane Library, up to October 2021. Models were classified as cohort state-transition models (cSTM) or individual patient simulation (IPS) models. Information was extracted on modeled kidney disease states, risk equations for CKD, data sources, and baseline characteristics of derivation cohorts in primary data sources. Results: The review identified 49 models (21 IPS, 28 cSTM). A five-state structure was standard among state-transition models, comprising one kidney disease-free state, three kidney disease states [frequently including albuminuria and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD)], and one death state. Five models captured CKD regression and three included cardiovascular disease (CVD). Risk equations most commonly predicted albuminuria and ESKD incidence, while the most predicted CKD sequelae were mortality and CVD. Most data sources were

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Chronic Kidney Disease in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Literature Review of Models, Data Sources, and Derivation Cohorts

Pöhlmann¹,

Bergenheim

Sánchez

et al. 2022

Diabetes Ther

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“…A perfect prediction is rarely (if ever) required, let alone possible, and we may instead ask: how much better/worse is each model than the other candidates? A simple model can then be a useful baseline against which to evaluate other models, as Katsikopoulos et al (2022) demonstrate here, and as used in the US CDC FluSight competition ( Lutz et al, 2019 ). Decisions may also involve actions that modify the very process we are trying to predict, such as deciding whether to make facemasks compulsory to help reduce the spread of COVID-19.…”

Section: Model Purposementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the context of infectious disease outbreaks, the prediction lead time is critical to informing preparedness and response activities. The one-week lead time of the recency heuristic is too short; a more complex model is required and, as Katsikopoulos et al indicate, longer-term predictions of influenza activity are much more difficult ( Wilke & Bergstrom, 2020 ). One alternative is the SIR model family, which is also based on simple rules.…”

Section: Model Suitabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“… Katsikopoulos et al (2022) advocate using simple heuristics as a baseline against which the performance of complex models should be evaluated, and argue that using simple rules can yield algorithms that are both accurate and understandable. They propose a simple “recency heuristic” for influenza-like illness—this week’s data will be the same as last week’s data—and pit this against Google Flu Trends, an extremely complex model built from huge quantities of data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Commentary on “Transparent modeling of influenza incidence”: Because the model said so

Moss

2022

International Journal of Forecasting

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“…When predictions failed, Google engineers made the algorithm more complex instead of simpler, without any improvement. In contrast, a simple heuristic that relies on a single data point, the most recent number of flu-related doctor visits, predicts better than Google’s big data models ( Katsikopoulos et al, in press ). Similarly, in social encounters, heuristics based on imitation or tit-for-tat can hardly be beaten, even in well-defined games ( Duersch et al, 2012 ).…”

Section: Why Study Embodied Heuristics?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Embodied Heuristics

Gigerenzer

2021

Front. Psychol.

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Intelligence evolved to cope with situations of uncertainty generated by nature, predators, and the behavior of conspecifics. To this end, humans and other animals acquired special abilities, including heuristics that allow for swift action in face of scarce information. In this article, I introduce the concept of embodied heuristics, that is, innate or learned rules of thumb that exploit evolved sensory and motor abilities in order to facilitate superior decisions. I provide a case study of the gaze heuristic, which solves coordination problems from intercepting prey to catching a fly ball. Various species have adapted this heuristic to their specific sensorimotor abilities, such as vision, echolocation, running, and flying. Humans have enlisted it for solving tasks beyond its original purpose, a process akin to exaptation. The gaze heuristic also made its way into rocket technology. I propose a systematic study of embodied heuristics as a research framework for situated cognition and embodied bounded rationality.

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Transparent modeling of influenza incidence: Big data or a single data point from psychological theory?

Cited by 32 publications

References 46 publications

Modeling Chronic Kidney Disease in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Literature Review of Models, Data Sources, and Derivation Cohorts

Modeling Chronic Kidney Disease in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Literature Review of Models, Data Sources, and Derivation Cohorts

Commentary on “Transparent modeling of influenza incidence”: Because the model said so

Embodied Heuristics

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