Transnational Trade and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Abstract

The study investigated the impact of transnational trade on economic growth in Nigeria. To achieve the purpose of the study, transnational trade was disaggregated into: oil import, oil export, non-oil import, non-oil export, trade openness, foreign direct investment share of real gross domestic product and real effective exchange rate and regressed on economic growth proxied by growth rate of real GDP. Data on the variables above were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical Bulletin and the World Bank database. The data were analysed using the Autoregressive and Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach due to the mixed order of stationarity of the variables. The results indicate that in the short run, non-oil export has positive and significant impact on economic growth while oil import and FDI share of real GDP have negative and significant effect on economic growth. The long run result shows that: oil import has direct and insignificant effect on growth while non-oil import, non-oil export, FDI share of real GDP and real effective exchange rate have negative and insignificant impact on economic growth. From the results the study concludes that transnational trade has serious implication on economic growth in the short run and less effect on economic growth in the long run in Nigeria over the period of this study. Based on these findings, the study suggests that policies should be geared toward increase in non-oil export, reduction in oil import, review of FDI inflow policies and trade liberalization as possible ways of improving the productive capacity of the Nigerian economy.

Assessing the Impact of Trade Policies on Growth and Development of the Manufacturing and Agricultural Sectors in Nigeria

“…Nigeria's inclusion in the WTO has facilitated trade and the cross-border transportation of goods. Thus, while trade liberalisation may increase investment and economic growth in Nigeria, its overall impact on capital formation is uncertain and dependent on trade policies and the economy's readiness for liberalisation (Briggs and Nteegah 2023;Ochoga and Zhema 2018).…”

Adapting to AI: How Will Generative AI Affect Work? How Should We Respond?

“…Generative AI has triggered widespread concern about job loss and impoverishment among university-educated, white-collared workers. A recent report by Goldman Sachs estimates that the technology exposes 300 million full-time jobs to substantial task automation and that these automation pressures will be strongest in white-collar jobs: office and administrative jobs, law, architecture and engineering, the sciences, business management, finance, sales, computer programming, and systems administration (Briggs et al 2023). Elondou and colleagues (2023) estimate that 80% of workers could see at least one-tenth of their work tasks automated by GPT, and just under one-fifth might see half of them automated.…”

“…Although automation allows employers to replace workers with machines in the short-term, people seem to devise new products, tasks, and roles in the economy (Acemoglu and Restrepo 2019;Autor and Salomons 2018). So even though the technology may disrupt workers and benefit wealthier people in the short-term (Autor and Salomons 2018), some economists expect that humanity as a whole will be made richer by these kinds of technology-induced social changes (Briggs et al 2023;Manyika 2017).…”

“…It triggered lawsuits, labor strikes, and government inquiries. It was predicted to automate many people's jobs (Briggs, Kodani, and Pierdomenico 2023). According to some reports, jobs are already disappearing.…”