Transmission Potential and Severity of COVID-19 in Pakistan

Abstract

As of 26 March 2020, Pakistan had 1179 cases of COVID-19, with most 421 cases from Sindh, 394 cases, 131 cases, 123 cases, 84 cases, 25 cases and 01 cases from Punjab, Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Islamabad Capital Territory, and Azad Jammu and Kashmir respectively. Travel-related cases were the main source of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the early phase of the pandemic in Pakistan. Nevertheless, cases of local virus transmission are increasing day by day. As of 26 March 2020, nine deaths have been reported from COVID-19. The case fatality rate is 0.8%, which is less compare to China, Italy, USA, and Iran. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model of epidemiological analysis predicts that almost 90 million population will be infected in the coming days with 5% critical cases that need health care facilities. However, the Pakistan health care system cannot provide services to this much population. Hence, we need to act timely to reduce this number by restricting local transmission of the disease. This can be done by mass testing, quarantine, isolation and social distancing of the active coronavirus cases in Pakistan. Moreover, better communication between the authorities is very much required to control disease transmission.

COVID-19 and its Challenges for the Healthcare System in Pakistan

“…As a middle-income country, with a weak healthcare infrastructure and a population of around 197 million (Hayat et al 2020), Pakistan is vulnerable to COVID-19 (Raza et al 2020). The Federal Minister of Health reported the first two confirmed cases of COVID-19 on 26 February 2020 in Karachi and Islamabad (Ali et al 2020).…”

Statistical analysis of forecasting COVID-19 for upcoming month in Pakistan

“…COVID-19 is pandemic and to control its spread, preventive measures be taken. For patients, all body fluids and electrolytes should be continuously checked with vital signs and to avoid further spread, they should be incubated with strict clinical measures under preventive guidelines [8] . The government need to find a strategy to fight this war in timely fashion, such as authorities took further measures of closing borders, suspending community services and schools, minimizing both domestic and international travels until further notice [9] .…”

Forecasting Unusual Trend of COVID-19 Progression in Pakistan

“…Later, within 15 days after the reporting of first infected case, the number of positive cases reached up to 20 on 12 March [7]. Pakistan realized the threat of epidemicalarmingly by local transmission on 13 March 2020, when first local transmission case was reported from Sindh who was a 52 years old patient with no international travelling history [8].…”