Transmission planning risk assessment

Abstract

Transmission planning in today's deregulated electric power systems should, at best, include a vigorous treatment of risk. Given that risk is the product of the likelihood of an event and the associated consequence (monetary or otherwise), it is present at every stage of the transmission expansion process -from the load forecast all the way to construction. Identification of risk factors at each stage of the transmission planning process, its likelihood and associated consequence is therefore critical, and necessary, in reaping maximum benefit. This paper provides a practical application of the inclusion of risk, based on the widely accepted Australia-New Zealand (AU-NZ) Risk Model [15], into the transmission planning process at Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) -a federal government agency that owns and operates the backbone of the electrical network of the US Pacific Northwest.

Probabilistic transmission network planning based on risk criteria

“…This criterion only combines a number of individual violations, and fails to reflect the individual size of each violation (if an outage of an element leads to three overloads <120% of thermal capacity, such an outage is less important than an outage which causes three overloads >120%). However, in [11], a different alternative solution for transmission expansion planning, which accounts for various risk factors, has been analysed to illustrate how to include risk analysis in the transmission network planning process.…”