“…A more recent meta-analysis by Baggaley et al (92) estimated a range of 0.24-0.65% with a point estimate of 0.45%, which we used here. This is consistent with another recent review (93) and an analysis of observed HIV transmission in a rural population in Uganda (94).…”
Section: Occupational Exposures and Hazardssupporting
“…A more recent meta-analysis by Baggaley et al (92) estimated a range of 0.24-0.65% with a point estimate of 0.45%, which we used here. This is consistent with another recent review (93) and an analysis of observed HIV transmission in a rural population in Uganda (94).…”
Section: Occupational Exposures and Hazardssupporting
“…Paediatric AIDS comes almost entirely from the vertical transmission of the HIV virus from mother to child either during pregnancy, at the time of delivery, or through breastfeeding. 17 We calculated the net effect of paedis s atric AIDS on mortality in unders5syears olds assuming probabilities of vertical transmission, and probabilities of death in children infected with HIV. First, the dynamics of HIV seroprevalence in pregnant women was reconstructed for the 1980-2000 period.…”
Section: Hiv Seroprevalence and Expected Impact Of Paediatric Aidsmentioning
Objective To reconstruct and analyse mortality trends in children younger than 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa between 1950 and 2000. Methods We selected 66 Demographic and Health Surveys and World Fertility Surveys from 32 African countries for analysis. Death rates were calculated by yearly periods for each survey. When several surveys were available for the same country, overlapping years were combined. Country-specific time series were analysed to identify periods of monotonic trends, whether declining, steady or increasing. We tested changes in trends using a linear logistic model. Findings A quarter of the countries studied had monotonic declining mortality trends: i.e. a smooth health transition. Another quarter had long-term declines with some minor rises over short periods of time. Eight countries had periods of major increases in mortality due to political or economic crises, and in seven countries mortality stopped declining for several years. In eight other countries mortality has risen in recent years as a result of paediatric AIDS. Reconstructed levels and trends were compared with other estimates made by international organizations, usually based on indirect methods. Conclusion Overall, major progress in child survival was achieved in sub-Saharan Africa during the second half of the twentieth century. However, transition has occurred more slowly than expected, with an average decline of 1.8% per year. Additionally, transition was chaotic in many countries. The main causes of mortality increase were political instability, serious economic downturns, and emerging diseases. Voir page 477 le résumé en français. En la página 477 figura un resumen en español.
“…There is a general consensus that primary channel of HIV/AIDS transmission in Africa is heterosexual sex (Schmid et al, 2004). Indeed, the DHS Comparative Report of February 2009 states that HIV infection is associated with an increasing number of lifetime sex-partners, earlier age of sexual debut among women, sex with non-marital or non-cohabiting partners and alcohol use during last sex.…”
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