Transmission of COVID-19 in the state of Georgia, United States: Spatiotemporal variation and impact of social distancing

Abstract

Background Beginning in early February 2020, COVID-19 spread across the state of Georgia leading to 258,354 cumulative cases as of August 25, 2020. The time scale of spreading (i.e., serial interval) and magnitude of spreading (i.e., Rt or reproduction number) for COVID-19, were observed to be heterogenous by demographic characteristics, region and time period. In this study, we examined the COVID-19 transmission in the state of Georgia, United States. Methods During February 1-July 13, 2020, we identified 4080 transmission pairs using contact information from reports of COVID-19 cases from the Georgia Department of Public Health. We examined how various transmission characteristics were affected by disease symptoms, demographics (age, gender, and race), and time period (during shelter-in-place and after reopening). In addition, we estimated the time course of reproduction numbers during early February-mid-June for all 159 counties in the state of Georgia, using a total of 118,491 reported COVID-19 cases. Findings Over this period, the serial interval appeared to decrease from 5.97 days in February-April to 4.40 days in June-July. With regard to age, transmission was assortative and patterns of transmission changed over time. COVID-19 mainly spread from adults to all age groups; transmission among and between children and the elderly was found less frequently. Younger adults (20-50 years old) were involved in the majority of transmissions occurring during or after reopening subsequent to the shelter-in-place period. By mid-July, two waves of COVID-19 transmission were apparent, separated by the shelter-in-place period in the state of Georgia. Counties around major cities and along interstate highways had more intense transmission. Interpretation The transmission of COVID-19 in the state of Georgia had been heterogeneous by area and changed over time. The shelter-in-place was not long enough to sufficiently suppress COVID-19 transmission in densely populated urban areas connected by major transportation links. Studying local transmission patterns may help in predicting and guiding states in prevention and control of COVID-19 according to population and region. Funding Emory COVID-19 Response Collaborative.

Spatially refined time-varying reproduction numbers of SARS-CoV-2 in Arkansas and Kentucky and their relationship to population size and public health policy, March – November 2020

“…Several studies have examined the R t estimates with respect to policy and interventions and used R t estimates as predictive models and quantitative measures of epidemic growth or decline. [31] , [32] , [33] Here, the R t trajectories of Arkansas and Kentucky differed among rural and urban areas, increasing or decreasing, depending on the implementation of preventative and relaxation measures. The R t will be useful as the pandemic progresses to inform policymakers and public health professions of the direction of potential outbreaks, assisting in preventing health care surges and implementing more preventative measures and policies.…”

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Spike in Georgia: An Epidemiologic Study of Data, Modelling, and Policy Implications to Understand the Gender-and Race-Specific Variations

“…as compared to transmission in public spaces. 14 The same study found that the majority of transmission came from people aged 40-70 years at the very beginning of the pandemic but shifted to those aged 25-50 years in June-July, 2020. 14 Males had a higher mortality rate than females in Georgia from COVID-19, with 23% mortality for males versus 13.8% for females.…”

“…14 The same study found that the majority of transmission came from people aged 40-70 years at the very beginning of the pandemic but shifted to those aged 25-50 years in June-July, 2020. 14 Males had a higher mortality rate than females in Georgia from COVID-19, with 23% mortality for males versus 13.8% for females. 11 Males were also hospitalized for COVID-19 more than females, even after controlling for various other factors such as age and chronic conditions.…”

“…Still, primary female case-patients are equally transmitted to secondary males and females, which the study attributed to the role of females as caregivers. 14 There was not much difference between males and females in building SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, with both measuring about 2.5% seroprevalence. 12 Total cases in Georgia are highest among the Whites-about 260,000 cases, followed by Blacks-nearly 160,000, unknown ethnicity/race about 130,000, "other" racesover 43,000, and Asians-12,000.…”

Late surges in COVID-19 cases and varying transmission potential partially due to public health policy changes in 5 Western states, March 10, 2020-January 10, 2021

“…A few studies have accessed the effectiveness of mitigation measures, especially regarding face mask mandate and school reopening. [21][22][23] Among the five states, North Dakota, Montana and Wyoming implemented the mask mandate and followed with the Rt reduction, which echoed with the 313 current existing body of research on the efficacy of face masking in preventing the transmission 314 of SARS-CoV-2. [24][25][26] However, South Dakota and Idaho also experienced the Rt reduction 315 without adopting the mask mandate, perhaps due to voluntary adoption of facemasks, which will 316 require further investigation.…”