Transmission dynamics of two dengue serotypes with vaccination scenarios

Morales, Nataly; Núñez-López, M.; Ramos‐Castañeda, José; Hernández, Juan González

doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2016.10.001

Cited by 19 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Later, infectious humans are recovered and pass to the recovered class, R d or R c , respectively. For Dengue, the recovered humans are immune for life to the specic serotype that they acquired, but only they have a brief period of immunity to the other three serotypes, this could take from 4 to 6 months [1]; in our model we consider that only a dominant Dengue serotype is transmitted, an scenario well documented in the Americas [17]. The per-capita natural death rate for the humans is µ.…”

Section: Calculationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A mathematical model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Mexico

Báez-Hernández

Casas-Martínez

Danis‐Lozano

et al. 2017

Preprint

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We present a model that incorporates two co-circulating viral diseases, Dengue and Chikungunya, where we allow secondary infections from either of the two diseases. We only consider one vector population, Ae. aegypti since in the Mexican region where we set our scenarios, only this species has been reported to transmit both viruses. We estimate the basic reproduction number and perform numerical simulations for dierent scenarios where we may observe coexistence of Dengue and Chikungunya; we also compare the results of the model with Dengue and Chikungunya data from Mexico 2015 and we obtain a good model t. To complete our ndings we perform a sensitivity analysis, and calculate the partial rank correlation coecients (PRCCs) to determine the parameter values inuence on the reproduction numbers and predict fate of the diseases.We show that R0 for each one of the viruses is highly sensitive to the mosquito biting rate and the transmission rates for both diseases with positive inuence and the average lifespan of mosquito along with the human recovery rate with negative inuence on both diseases. Our results are consistent with those of previous authors.

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Section: Calculationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A mathematical model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Mexico

Báez-Hernández

Casas-Martínez

Danis‐Lozano

et al. 2017

Preprint

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“…Mobility and Dengue have received varied and intense attention in the last decade. Dengue moves with the human population along roads and highways in many parts of the world and, being transmitted by Aedes aegypti a highly adapted vector to urban environments [29] , [30] , [31] , [32] , prevention and control constitute a major aim in many countries [12] , [33] , [34] , [35] , [36] , [37] , [38] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Migration rate estimation in an epidemic network

Núñez-López

Ramos

Hernández

2021

Applied Mathematical Modelling

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Highlights We address the migration of the human population and its effect on pathogen reinfection. We use a Markov-chain SIS metapopulation model over a network. The contact rate is based on the infected hosts and the incidence of their neighboring locations. We estimate from Dengue data in Mexico the dynamics of migration incorporating climate variability.

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“…Modeling and analysis of the spread of infectious diseases has become a relevant problem of interdisciplinary nature. Many countries have established public health surveillance systems geared to the prevention and rapid response in case of an epidemic outbreak and mathematical and statistical models are being amply used as tools in public health [17], [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Dengue modelling and control efforts are extensive [17], [26], [34], [37], although there is much still to do. The primary vector for dengue is Aedes aegypti and this virus generates acute immunizing infections in humans.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional reinfection by Dengue: a network approach using data from Mexico

Núñez-López

Alarcon-Ramos²,

Hernández

2018

Preprint

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Most of the recent epidemic outbreaks in the world have a strong immigration component as a trigger rather than the dynamics implied by the basic reproduction number. In this work we present and discuss an approach to the problem of pathogen reinfections in a given area that associates people mobility and transmission of dengue, using a Markov-chain Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) metapopulation model over a network. Our model postulates a parameter that we have named the effective inoculum size which represents a local measure of the population size of infected hosts that arrive at a given location as a function of population size, current incidence at neighboring locations and the connectivity of the patches. This parameter can be interpreted as an indicator of outbreak risk of any location. Our model also incorporates climate variability represented by an index based upon precipitation data. We replicate observed patterns of incidence at a regional scale using data from epidemics in Mexico.

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Transmission dynamics of two dengue serotypes with vaccination scenarios

Cited by 19 publications

References 22 publications

A mathematical model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Mexico

A mathematical model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Mexico

Migration rate estimation in an epidemic network

Regional reinfection by Dengue: a network approach using data from Mexico

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