Transmission dynamics of a novel fractional model for the Marburg virus and recommended actions

Abdeljawad, Thabet; Băleanu, Dumitru; Kumar, Sachin

doi:10.1140/epjs/s11734-023-00943-0

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Transmission between humans usually occurs through bodily fluids such as blood, saliva, and urine. Such interactions tend to happen when caring for a sick patient but can include the handling of an infected corpse [76].…”

Section: Marburg Virus: a Brief Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Marburg Virus Outbreak and a New Conspiracy Theory: Findings from a Comprehensive Analysis and Forecasting of Web Behavior

Thakur,

Cui,

Patel

et al. 2023

Computation

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During virus outbreaks in the recent past, web behavior mining, modeling, and analysis have served as means to examine, explore, interpret, assess, and forecast the worldwide perception, readiness, reactions, and response linked to these virus outbreaks. The recent outbreak of the Marburg Virus disease (MVD), the high fatality rate of MVD, and the conspiracy theory linking the FEMA alert signal in the United States on 4 October 2023 with MVD and a zombie outbreak, resulted in a diverse range of reactions in the general public which has transpired in a surge in web behavior in this context. This resulted in “Marburg Virus” featuring in the list of the top trending topics on Twitter on 3 October 2023, and “Emergency Alert System” and “Zombie” featuring in the list of top trending topics on Twitter on 4 October 2023. No prior work in this field has mined and analyzed the emerging trends in web behavior in this context. The work presented in this paper aims to address this research gap and makes multiple scientific contributions to this field. First, it presents the results of performing time-series forecasting of the search interests related to MVD emerging from 216 different regions on a global scale using ARIMA, LSTM, and Autocorrelation. The results of this analysis present the optimal model for forecasting web behavior related to MVD in each of these regions. Second, the correlation between search interests related to MVD and search interests related to zombies was investigated. The findings show that there were several regions where there was a statistically significant correlation between MVD-related searches and zombie-related searches on Google on 4 October 2023. Finally, the correlation between zombie-related searches in the United States and other regions was investigated. This analysis helped to identify those regions where this correlation was statistically significant.

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Section: Marburg Virus: a Brief Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Marburg Virus Outbreak and a New Conspiracy Theory: Findings from a Comprehensive Analysis and Forecasting of Web Behavior

Thakur,

Cui,

Patel

et al. 2023

Computation

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“…where D ν t ψ(t) = (1 − ν)ψ(t) + νψ (t) and I is the generalized proportional integral defined in Equation (12).…”

Section: Main Definitionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The ability of fractional calculus to provide insight into complicated dynamical structures with memory implications has attracted attention in a number of disciplines, notably mathematics, engineering, and medicine [11][12][13]. Mathematical models with fractional differential equations may differentiate between biological and memory properties, resulting in them being more realistic and scientific than models with typical integer orders.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamical Transmission and Mathematical Analysis of Ebola Virus Using a Constant Proportional Operator with a Power Law Kernel

Xu,

Farman

2023

Fractal Fract

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The Ebola virus continues to be the world’s biggest cause of mortality, especially in developing countries, despite the availability of safe and effective immunization. In this paper, we construct a fractional-order Ebola virus model to check the dynamical transmission of the disease as it is impacted by immunization, learning, prompt identification, sanitation regulations, isolation, and mobility limitations with a constant proportional Caputo (CPC) operator. The existence and uniqueness of the proposed model’s solutions are discussed using the results of fixed-point theory. The stability results for the fractional model are presented using Ulam–Hyers stability principles. This paper assesses the hybrid fractional operator by applying methods to invert proportional Caputo operators, calculate CPC eigenfunctions, and simulate fractional differential equations computationally. The Laplace–Adomian decomposition method is used to simulate a set of fractional differential equations. A sustainable and unique approach is applied to build numerical and analytic solutions to the model that closely satisfy the theoretical approach to the problem. The tools in this model appear to be fairly powerful, capable of generating the theoretical conditions predicted by the Ebola virus model. The analysis-based research given here will aid future analysis and the development of a control strategy to counteract the impact of the Ebola virus in a community.

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A conformable mathematical model of Ebola Virus Disease and its stability analysis

Abbas,

Zanib,

Ramzan

et al. 2024

Heliyon

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Transmission dynamics of a novel fractional model for the Marburg virus and recommended actions

Cited by 5 publications

References 23 publications

Marburg Virus Outbreak and a New Conspiracy Theory: Findings from a Comprehensive Analysis and Forecasting of Web Behavior

Marburg Virus Outbreak and a New Conspiracy Theory: Findings from a Comprehensive Analysis and Forecasting of Web Behavior

Dynamical Transmission and Mathematical Analysis of Ebola Virus Using a Constant Proportional Operator with a Power Law Kernel

A conformable mathematical model of Ebola Virus Disease and its stability analysis

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