Transmission dynamics and underreporting of Kala-azar in the Indian state of Bihar

Abstract

Abstract"Kala-azar" (or Indian Visceral Leishmaniasis) is a vector-borne infectious disease affecting communities in tropical and subtropical areas of the world. Bihar, a state in India, has one of the highest prevalence and mortality reported levels of Kala-azar. Yet, the magnitude of the problem is difficult to assess because most cases are handled by private health providers who are not required to and do not report them to the Ministry of Health. The impact of underreporting using district-level reported incidence data from the state of Bihar is the main goal of this manuscript.We derive expressions for, and compute estimates of Kala-azar's reproduction num- * Corresponding author Email addresses: mubayi@uta.edu (Anuj Mubayi), chavez@math.la.asu.edu (Carlos Castillo-Chavez ), gchowell@asu.edu (Gerardo Chowell), kribs@uta.edu (Christopher Kribs-Zaleta), niyamatalisiddiqui@yahoo.com (Niyamat Ali Siddiqui), narendra54in@yahoo.com (Narendra Kumar), drpradeep.das@gmail.com (2005) of the most affected Kala-azar districts had been classified as low-risk when only reported incidence data were used.

Progress in the Mathematical Modelling of Visceral Leishmaniasis

“…The model by Mubayi et al (2010) sought to quantify the underreporting bias of KA cases in Bihar, India by combining a transmission model with data (from 2003 and 2005) from the most affected 21 of 38 districts in Bihar. In addition to the SIR compartments, the model includes stages for: latent infection where individuals have been infected with Leishmania but are not yet infectious to sandflies; and treatment compartments where diseased patients attend either public or private centres before recovery is possible (see Figure 2).…”

“…To include more realistic latent, infectious and treatment periods, Mubayi et al (2010) make use of the "linear-chain trick", a mathematical technique where each of these compartments is partitioned into subcompartments. Using this method generates Erlang-distributed (gamma-distributed with the shape parameter, k ∈ N) periods rather than exponential distributed periods (MacDonald, 1978).…”

Telehealth: a perspective approach for visceral leishmaniasis (kala-azar) control in India

“…The disease, VL is spread through female infected sand fly and it is now accepted that on top of seasonal changes, climate and therefore climate change play a crucial role in carrying the disease. 61,62 Advances in satellite-based remote sensing, global positioning system, GIS, and computer processing have now made it easier to integrate ecological, environmental and other data, to develop predictive models that can be used in disease surveillance and control activities. [63][64][65] Telehealth may now plan new insights into the geographical distribution and gradients of kala-azar prevalence, as well as on population health assessment, by providing valuable information about different populations at risk, based on risk factor profiles.…”

Who Is a Typical Patient with Visceral Leishmaniasis? Characterizing the Demographic and Nutritional Profile of Patients in Brazil, East Africa, and South Asia

“…In the poorest communities of these endemic countries, VL is a leading cause of illness [4][5][6] and economic distress to families. [7][8][9][10][11][12] VL is often associated with malnutrition, which is also a symptom of more severe infection and a major risk factor for poorer clinical and treatment outcomes.…”