Transmissibility and Epidemicity of COVID-19 in India: A Case Study

Abstract

Background: The global outbreak of COVID-19 incepted in Wuhan, China in the late 2019. It is still unclear about the origin of the infection. Over time, it has migrated geographically to 150 countries in the world and World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the infectious disease to be pandemic. Objective: Recently, COVID-19 has stepped into India by the travellers from other countries. The transmissibility and epidemicity of COVID-19 in India is exponential. So, in-order to understand the above characteristics, specifically COVID-19 status in India is analyzed. To analyze this into deeper, the state of Kerala is selected. The epidemiological characteristics of patients in Kerala, South India and the possible transmission of COVID-19 from asymptomatic members to other peers are shown using certain cases. Methods: The COVID-19 dataset is taken from Kaggle dataset. This dataset contains the details of the infected patients from different states of India. Statistical analysis techniques where used to analyze the distribution of the affected cases in a particular state. Results: The analysis shows that there is possibility of transmission of the infection even during incubation period. The recent trend in the number of infected cases in India is discussed. Conclusion: The transmissibility of COVID-19 and its epidemicity in India is discussed. In specific, a case study on COVID -19 cases in the state of Kerala relating the transmissibility is also summarized. Further, data related to patents on corona virus is also discussed. From the analysis, it can be concluded that there is a possibility of COVID-19 transmission even during incubation period. The preventive measures to overcome COVID-19 and methods to increase the immunity are discussed.

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