Transitional states in marine fisheries: adapting to predicted global change

Abstract

Global climate change has the potential to substantially alter the production and community structure of marine fisheries and modify the ongoing impacts of fishing. Fish community composition is already changing in some tropical, temperate and polar ecosystems, where local combinations of warming trends and higher environmental variation anticipate the changes likely to occur more widely over coming decades. Using case studies from the Western Indian Ocean, the North Sea and the Bering Sea, we contextualize the direct and indirect effects of climate change on production and biodiversity and, in turn, on the social and economic aspects of marine fisheries. Climate warming is expected to lead to (i) yield and species losses in tropical reef fisheries, driven primarily by habitat loss; (ii) community turnover in temperate fisheries, owing to the arrival and increasing dominance of warm-water species as well as the reduced dominance and departure of cold-water species; and (iii) increased diversity and yield in Arctic fisheries, arising from invasions of southern species and increased primary production resulting from ice-free summer conditions. How societies deal with such changes will depend largely on their capacity to adapt—to plan and implement effective responses to change—a process heavily influenced by social, economic, political and cultural conditions.

Biological diversity in a changing world

“…In contrast, never before has a single species driven such profound changes to the habitats, composition and climate of the planet. To deal with the challenges raised by these large-scale and intense modifications of the planet, we need to develop quantitative tools to quantify (Chao et al 2010;Gotelli et al 2010;Magurran & Henderson 2010) and understand (Colwell & Rangel 2010;Dornelas 2010) change; we must document change at multiple scales of space, time and organizational levels (Morris 2010;White et al 2010;Womack et al 2010); and we must develop management tools that take change into account (Mace et al 2010;MacNeil et al 2010).…”

“…MacNeil et al (2010) review available knowledge to try to predict the consequences of current climate trends. They conclude that tropical fisheries are likely to lose species and yield, temperate fisheries are likely to change their species composition and polar fisheries are likely to increase in diversity and yield.…”

Climate change impacts and adaptation of commercial marine fisheries in Australia: a review of the science

“…If commercial fishers can change their harvest strategies and processing without incurring significant additional costs, travel time or associated fuel consumption, they may be able to take advantage of these opportunities. Diverting effort to target new or different species will be an important adaptation strategy as distributions shift (MacNeil et al 2010). The capacity to quickly adapt to changing fisheries resources using new harvest techniques and gear will be a significant factor determining the future success of commercial fisheries .…”

“…prawns, mud crabs, coral trout and aquarium species), are likely to change as a result of climate-related impacts on these habitats MacNeil et al 2010;Donnelly 2011;Pratchett et al 2011a;Bell et al 2013). For example, barramundi (L. calcarifer) landings correlated with an index of climate variability (Balston 2009a) flag the possible effects on early life stages as rainfall, river flow and temperature variability influence nutrient availability and nursery habitat productivity (Balston 2009b).…”

“…The range of adaptation options available for fisheries management to minimise the impacts of climate change include, but are not limited to: preserving age and geographic structure of fished populations; protecting key functional groups; multi-jurisdictional management of stocks; integrated management systems that include social, economic and ecological values; reducing overcapacity in fisheries; incorporating a climate change catch quota into stock assessments; and reducing barriers to adaptation, such as resource depletion and resource reliance Johnson and Welch 2010;MacNeil et al 2010). Specific planned adaptations can also reduce or delay impacts, or support autonomous adaptation in the short-to medium-term, such as focused management of target species, habitat protection and restoration, enhancement of native populations, assisted migration, and ex situ conservation (Koehn et al 2011).…”